Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 230810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
310 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017


Skies are mostly clear across much of the forecast area early this
morning with temperatures in the 70s. All of the showers and
thunderstorms that moved into north Mississippi a few hours ago
have died out. The cold front which moved into the region Tuesday
is now over extreme north Mississippi at this time.

This front is expected to move slowly south today reaching
central Mississippi this afternoon. Some additional showers and
thunderstorms may develop along the front today. Temperatures will
not be as warm as they have been over the past few days with highs
in the low to mid 80s.

High pressure will build into the area tonight and remain over the
region for the next few days. This will result in dry weather for
Thursday and Friday with temperatures remaining below normal.

The forecast for Saturday through Tuesday will be dependent on
what happens with what is still the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Harvey. The expectations are that the remnants will
strengthen later today as it moves across the Bay of Campeche and
into the Gulf of Mexico.

The current computer models bring Harvey into the Texas coast
sometime late Friday afternoon or early evening and bring it to
the northeast. Moisture from this system could start moving into
the forecast area as early as Saturday with some rain possible in
portions of north Mississippi. The chance of rain will gradually
move north over the weekend and into Monday and Tuesday. The 00Z
models show the heaviest rain remaining south of the forecast area
but there still remain much uncertainty as to when and where the
heaviest rain will be so will not make any changes to the HWO
regarding a heavy rain threat. Temperatures will remain below
normal from Saturday through Tuesday.




06Z TAFs

VFR...with the potential for a scattered MVFR layer during light
showers at MEM and TUP. Winds north through northeast at 4-9 kts.
Drier air will slowly decrease cloud cover later in the period.