Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 232001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
301 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018


Most of the region recovering from morning convection with cu
fields on satellite across the north and far south where the area
was untouched from precipitation. Temperatures still cool along
the Tennessee River with readings around 80F...hotter in the west
with near 90F temperatures in the southwest Delta. Winds were
breezy from the south in the wake of the morning storms as well.

Tricky next 24 hours with regards to convection timing. Latest HRRR
showing a few storms popping up early this evening over north
Mississippi that may train through the night with little to no
activity farther north until tomorrow. However...models from
yesterday and Thursday were in strong agreement of organized
convection sliding across the northern counties in the 06-12z
time frame. So have split the difference with 40-50 pops across
much of the region tonight. Temperatures tomorrow will be
near average. Storms may still be lingering across the north
tomorrow night where the midlevel westerlies remain strongest.

Monday through shortwave to drop into the Plains
and evolve into an upper low is anticipated this period. The GFS
shows the entire Midsouth remaining in an active convective
swath...while the NAM and Euro focus storms in the north and
east with the southwest starting to heat up. Have leaned more
with this NAM and Euro consistency. Temperatures will range from
89F to the northeast to 95F in the southwest...with triple digit
heat indices building in. Heat advisories are possible for
portions of the area.

End of next week...both the GFS and Euro show the ridge building
even further over the Central States. Widespread mid 90`s will be
the rule with a few upper 90`s possible in the west. Heat indices
in the 103F-109F heat advisories will be likely.



.AVIATION.../18z TAFs/

A complicated pattern exists over the Mid South over the next 24
hours with regard to convective pattern and expected coverage.
Morning convection has moved east with several subtle outflow
boundaries left in its wake. A subtle shortwave moving out of
Oklahoma should initiate at least scattered convection late this
afternoon and evening, with a focus along outflow boundaries, as
the atmosphere recovers and instability builds. There will likely
be another subtle shortwave late tonight into Sunday morning which
should result in additional convective development for the end of
the taf forecast period.

VFR cigs/vsbys should develop this afternoon at all terminals and
persist through late evening, outside of any storms. MVFR to IFR
cigs should develop along with reduced vsbys in patchy fog, as low
level moist southerly flow persists. Low stratus should mix out by
mid Sunday morning with a return to VFR, again outside of storms.

Gusty southwest winds will continue across the terminals this
afternoon, before gradually diminishing this evening. Winds may
become chaotic as terminals are affected by outflow boundaries.
Speeds will again increase from the southwest later Sunday