Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KMEG 251512
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1012 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017


.DISCUSSION...

Skies are sunny across the forecast area this morning with
temperatures mainly in the 60s. A nice afternoon is in store for
the region with sunny skies and temperatures warming into the mid
to upper 70s. Current forecast looks good with no updates needed
at this time.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

A quiet morning is ongoing across the Mid-South with latest radar
imagery indicating shower activity having ended. Latest H5
analysis depicts the upper low responsible for earlier showers now
centered over east Tennessee, with heights beginning to increase
over the local region as a ridge builds from the west. This will
create for a couple of nice days across the region, with skies
rapidly clearing early this morning with plenty of sunshine this
afternoon.

Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70s this afternoon
under the influence of clear skies and the building ridge aloft.
Temperatures tonight will generally be in the 60s, with some of
the coolest locales in the upper 50s. By early Friday a warm
front associated with a deepening surface low over the Great
Plains surges north over the region, allowing Friday afternoon
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s. Meanwhile,
dewpoint temperatures will also rise to uncomfortable values near
70 as moisture advection ensues generously. The region will be
nicely entrenched neath the upper low on Friday, thus diurnal
convection looks unlikely, despite the ample low level moisture
and resultant instability. By Saturday, however, warm and humid
conditions will still be in place with temperatures again in the
mid to upper 80s. As the ridge axis shifts east by early Saturday,
southwesterly flow aloft sets up over the region, and weak
impulses in this flow throughout the afternoon and evening hours
could lead to some diurnal convection.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for Saturday
evening and into Sunday as a surface front moves in from the
northwest. Models currently indicate ample instability, with
SBCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG for much of the western half
of the FA by 06z on Sunday morning just as the front approaches
the region. Overall bulk shear values remain less than 45 kts with
shear mostly unidirectional, so a line of showers and storms
appears the most likely mode of convection overnight Saturday and
into Sunday morning. However, a few discrete storms out ahead of
the line could be possible on Saturday evening and night. Will
continue the strong to severe storms wording in the HWO as strong
winds and large hail could be possible overnight Saturday and into
Sunday morning, especially for areas along and north of I-40.

Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday and into early next week
behind the front and with the region under a trough axis aloft.
Models in fairly decent agreement that showers and thunderstorms
will gradually come to an end on Monday, with some sunshine
possibly returning for at least some of Memorial Day. Conditions
will likely remain dry through midweek when models begin bringing
in precipitation embedded in northwesterly flow aloft.
Temperatures will be cooler than average for late May.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...12z TAFs

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all terminals.
Westerly winds will increase later this morning to between 9-12
kts and persist through the afternoon. Southerly winds at 8 kts or
greater will continue tonight.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$