Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KMEG 190405
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1105 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Cold temperatures will overspread the Mid-South tonight with lows
in the mid 20s to low 30s. A Freeze Warning will go into effect at
11PM and expire at 9AM Tuesday. Make sure to cover sensitive
vegetation and exposed pipes. Temperatures will begin warming
tomorrow as south winds advect warmer air into the region. As a
result, afternoon temperatures will be near 60 degrees.

ANS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Our break from Spring (Spring Break) will last another 24 hours or
so but sub freezing temperatures are likely tonight across all of
the Midsouth. Highs tomorrow should be near 60 with middle 60s to
low 70s for the remainder of the work week and over the weekend.
Our next chance of rain will be late Wednesday night and continue
through early Friday. The weekend looks dry with increasing
clouds Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

It`s a chilly Spring day across the Midsouth. Current temperatures
remain in the 40s across most of the area with highs expected to
reach the middle 40s to middle 50s in the next hour or two. High
pressure currently over the Plains will shift to the south and
east tonight becoming centered over Louisiana tomorrow. The closer
proximity of the surface high will result in light winds and
clear skies overnight. Light winds, clear skies, and a dry airmass
featuring dewpoints in the 20s to low 30s will result in
efficient radiational cooling allowing temperatures to quickly
fall into the 30s with morning lows in the middle 20s to low 30s.
A freeze warning is in effect for all of the Midsouth. NBM
data indicates a 50% greater probability that nearly all of the
Midsouth will fall below freezing. For most of northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, west Tennessee and much of north
Mississippi there is a medium(40-70%) to high(greater than 70%)
probability of falling below 28 degrees. Any outdoor plants could
suffer damage or even be killed tonight. The Mississippi Delta
south of Memphis stands the best chance of avoiding a hard freeze
(below 28 degrees) tonight into Tuesday morning. Frost/Freeze
headlines have been posted.

High temperatures will begin to rebound tomorrow with highs in
the upper 50s to near 60 degrees and near 70 degrees Wednesday.

Weak northwest flow will setup across much of the Mississippi River
Valley midweek, and remain in place through Saturday. A backdoor
cold front will move across the Midsouth Wednesday night resulting
in a slight cooldown. A cutoff low over the Desert Southwest
Wednesday will become an open shortwave after midweek and approach
the Midsouth Thursday. Return flow ahead of this system looks
minimal and even drier air will filter in behind the backdoor cold
front. The cutoff low will result in our next chance of rain
although rainfall totals do not look very significant, generally
less than one quarter of an inch. The shortwave should move east
of the area by Saturday resulting in a dry start to the weekend.
Highs Saturday should be in the middle to upper 60s with 70s on
Sunday. Clouds and a few showers should return to the Midsouth
late Sunday as the next storm system develops in the Plains and
approaches the middle Mississippi River Valley.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR. Light winds overnight will become SW Tuesday and increase to
10-15 kts with higher gusts by mid-morning. Winds will diminish
to 5-8 kts around sunset. A low level jet will develop for a few
hours Tuesday night across northern sections of the Mid-South
impacting JBR and MKL.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...SJM