Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 191130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
630 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018


Updated to include 12z aviation discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/


Currently...Surface high pressure extends from the southern plains
across the Mid-South to the Atlantic seaboard. High clouds are
moving into the area in advance of the next system that will begin
impacting the area later today. Temps are generally in the 40s
with light winds.

Today and tonight...High pressure will hang on for a while today
with temps pushing into the mid 60s north to mid 70s over parts of
North Mississippi. A mid level trough from central plains into
the Rockies will push east along with a cold front later today and
tonight. This system will pick up some moisture from the gulf as
it heads east. This moisture will overrun the cool airmass in
place resulting in rain across northern/western sections by later
today spreading across the entire forecast area tonight. Some
lingering rain is possible across North Mississippi Saturday
morning. Rainfall amounts should generally remain around one half
inch for this event.

Saturday through Sunday night...Airmass right behind the front is
not too chilly and temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to
around 70 as the Mid-South dries out on Saturday. A secondary
cold front will push through Saturday evening ushering in a much
cooler airmass. By 12z Sunday a 1033 mb surface high will be
situated over south central Missouri. Temps will fall into the 30s
across the northern half of the Mid-South by Sunday morning. The
development of frost will depend on whether winds diminish. Right
now it looks like will drop to 5 kts or less across Northeast
Arkansas, the Bootheel and much of West Tennessee so frost will be
possible. Sunday will be chilly despite plenty of sunshine. Highs
will only reach the middle and upper 50s. Temps will drop quickly
Sunday night as high pressure continues over the area. Expect
temps in the 30s areawide by morning. Frost is likely...especially
across West Tennessee.

Monday through Tuesday night...Surface pressure and weak ridging
aloft will prevail with dry, quiet weather. Highs will be in the
60s with lows in the 40s.

Wednesday and Thursday...00z models in quite a bit of disagreement
during this time frame. However, the pattern becomes generally
more unsettled by mid week with potential disturbances moving into
the area and rain chances returning. Temperatures will remain
below normal.



12z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions to begin the period with calm to light winds. Winds
will pick up a bit this afternoon from a westerly direction. MVFR
to possible IFR category will be possible late in the period as a
cold front brings -RA and BR to all terminals overnight and
through Saturday morning, reducing ceilings and visibility.
Conditions should be improving right at or shortly just after the
end of the period.