Forecast Discussion
309 FXUS64 KMEG 111717 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 - Hot and dry conditions will dominate the Mid-South leading to above-normal temperatures through next week. - Temperatures are expected to exceed 90 degrees for the next several days. There is potential for some areas to hit 100 degrees by early next week. - Drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen due to lack of precipitation and prolonged heat. This also raises wildland fire concerns through at least next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 An omega block covers the CONUS this morning. The ridge is centered over the Southern Plains with upper troughs over the Intermountain West and the Mid-Atlantic. As the ridge builds into the Mid-South, eastern sections of the area are still under feeling some influence from the eastern U.S. trough. A few showers and thunderstorms could scrape the TN River Valley this afternoon and evening as some weak disturbances rotate around that trough. Anything that develops will be short lived though, since moisture is very shallow. The omega block will drift east over the next few days with the ridge becoming centered over the Mid-South by early next week. The heat will gradually build with mid and upper 90s becoming common area wide. There is some chance of 100 degrees readings since the air mass is pretty dry though NBM guidance did come in a degree or two lower this past run. The gulf remains shut off through the period which will keep dewpoints in the 50s and 60s and the humidities in check. The heat will not have the same bite as August. The omega block start to break down toward the end of next week so afternoon precip chances may start to tick up as the ridge weakens. The dry, hot weather with little rain and low humidities will result in worsening drought conditions across the Mid-South. Severe (D2) drought has expanded to cover a large portion of the NE AR, the MO Bootheel and West TN and will likely continue to spread. Fire danger will increase over the next several days as fuels continue to dry and RH values drop below 30 percent each afternoon starting Saturday. On a positive note, winds will be light over the next 7 days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 VFR CIGs will prevail through the period. Mainly a wind forecast as surface high pressure meanders over eastern CONUS. Expect winds to be light and variable, eventually veering to the northeast by Friday morning. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Below normal rainfall and low minimum relative humidity values (25-35%) will result in the development of an elevated fire danger risk by this weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm into the middle and upper 90s, with 20 ft winds expected to remain light through the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...ANS