Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMEG 220520 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1120 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 827 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021/ DISCUSSION... Cold front is south of the region this evening. Another upper level disturbance will approach the Lower MS valley overnight and rain will skirt the southern counties of the forecast area roughly south of a line form Clarksdale to Tupelo. Further north hi-res models are hinting at fog developing but that seems unlikely given the amount of middle/high cloudiness streaming into the region. Will keep an eye on it. Lows will range from the 30s north to mid 40s south. Forecast on track. SJM PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021/ Light rain associated with a cold front sinking south is continuing across our southern counties in MS. High pressure builds in with rain ending by around 17Z Friday. With high pressure in place Saturday will be dry. Temperatures are currently in the upper 40s and low 50s. Low temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s in TN, MO Bootheel and NE AR to mid 40`s in MS and southern AR. In the meantime a trough continues to build and digs over SoCal. It will shift over the southwest and by Sunday morning we should see rain return to the area. With the low deepening and loving across the area on Monday. Significant rain in the 2-3in range is expected with the potential for locally higher amounts. By late Monday night/ early Tuesday morning the low pressure has crossed the area and shifted east which will end the rain west to east by 06Z. We are dry for the remainder of Tuesday. Another trough and cutoff low deepens and digs in over the Desert Southwest. This will again move across the Southwest and Texas and approach the area by Wednesday. This should bring us more rain Wednesday into Thursday. There is still model disagreement so confidence remains low. SMW && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF cycle VFR conditions will continue across much of the Mid-South for most of the forecast period. Some low clouds and light rain continues to move across extreme southern sections of the Mid-South and this will continue through Friday morning. Some patchy areas of fog may develop overnight mainly across northern sections of the Mid- South. Winds will be light and variable overnight before becoming northeast at 5 to 10 knots on Friday. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$