Forecast Discussion
734 FXUS64 KMEG 261138 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 638 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 633 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 -Low relative humidity values will result in an elevated fire danger across the Mid-South through this afternoon. -Dry conditions will prevail for much of the week. High temperatures will mostly be in the 70s each day. -Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend, with at least a 15% chance of severe weather on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 We are firmly entrenched in a northwest flow pattern due to a low amplitude upstream ridge. As a result, decaying MCSs from shortwaves of various origin points over the next few days will cause pockets of spotty showers, much like we`re seeing right now over the ArkLaMiss region. The next batch of this light shower activity is expected for the far northern tier of counties tomorrow mid morning and afternoon as a disorganized and broad MCS falls apart throughout the day. Not seeing much of a signal for thunder in the hi res soundings for most of the day tomorrow, but later in the afternoon, the peak instability may give way to a couple rumbles of thunder. Late in the day on Friday, a warm front is slated to lift north across the central and southern Gulf Coast. This brings our areawide PoPs back into the 30-40% range, further increasing to 60% as the pre-frontal rain belt materializes on Saturday morning. This looks like a one-two punch situation where an initial cold front from the Gulf Coast brings a wave of showers and thunderstorms, followed by a brief lull and eventually a secondary reinforcing front with a more dynamic setup from the central Plains on Sunday. Not much has changed regarding the severe weather threat on Sunday with the reinforcing front. The main difference in each ensemble solution presented by the clusters of the LREF for the Sat-Sun time period is the location of the most favorable corridor. All scenarios present at least a 60% chance of favorably overlapping CAPE and shear somewhere, it`s just a question of where, hence the extremely broad Slight Risk area covering most of the east-central CONUS. The cluster most heavily weighted by the GFS presents a warmer, moister environment (more CAPE) while the ECMWF dominant cluster presents a deeper trough and thus a more sheared environment. All of these situations are plausible for mid March and would present an all-hazards severe weather threat, regardless of how exactly it plays out. We`ll be working with low 80s surface temperatures and 60s dewpoints either way so the parameter space is certainly nothing to balk at. After the front moves through on Monday, will be carrying at least a 15% PoP through the remainder of the forecast due to a generally unsettled surface pattern. Long range guidance suggests above normal temperatures and a wetter than normal next few weeks. CAD && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 VFR. A weak surface pressure gradient will result in light and variable winds through late morning becoming north this afternoon. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...AC3