Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 270528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1128 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

See the 06z aviation discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 854 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020/

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 satellite trends this evening indicate a
mid-level shortwave trough moving across portions of Southeast
Missouri, Southern Illinois, and the Mid-South. KNQA WSR-88D radar
trends depict scattered showers over Northeast Mississippi, and a
thin line of showers stretching from Tiptonville, TN to Jonesboro,
AR, moving east southeast. As of 7 PM CST, temperatures across the
Mid-South are in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Latest short term models including CAM solutions suggest a
majority of the rain showers should depart during the early
morning hours as the shortwave trough pulls away from the region.

Will adjust forecast to account for these short term trends.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in decent shape.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020/

Light rain continues this afternoon across portions of North
Mississippi and Northwest Tennessee. The band of rain located
across Northwest Tennessee is just ahead of a weak front. The band
will gradually sink to the southeast during the evening and
overnight hours. Meanwhile, the area of rain over North
Mississippi is expected to expand in coverage this evening as a
shortwave moves into the area. The rain will gradually shift east
over time. Drizzle and fog may occur during the evening and
overnight hours along and ahead of the weak front that will be
sinking southeast.

A few of the CAM models are showing some light rain developing
in the northwest flow on Monday. The rain could skirt portions of
Northeast Arkansas during the late afternoon and early evening

The next best chance for rain will occur Tuesday into Wednesday as
an upper trough moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This
system bears watching as the NAM shows much colder air moving into
the area with this system thus changing rain to snow Tuesday
Night across much of West Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, and
Northeast Arkansas. The ECMWF is a little bit warmer and only has
the precipitation change occurring near the AR/MO and KY/TN state
lines. The GFS and Canadian are the warmest models which keep
precipitation all rain. For now just mentioned a slight chance of
snow for areas along the AR/MO and KY/TN state lines.

Models beyond Wednesday diverge greatly on solutions. Another
system could impact the Mid-South on Friday. Then by next weekend
differences grow further as the Canadian keeps a broad upper
trough over the region while the ECMWF builds and upper ridge over
the Midwest. Stay tuned.



/06z TAFs/

IFR/LIFR ceilings will persist throughout the night with areas of
fog and drizzle developing overnight. Visibility is expected to
drop to 1/2 mile at times along/west of the MS River and into
northwest MS overnight, likely remaining in the 1-4 mile range
farther east. Otherwise, expect drizzle to end by sunrise with low
ceilings hanging around through around 18z. Slightly drier air
will advect into the area tomorrow behind a weak cold front,
shifting winds from the northwest at 5-8 kts. Low clouds may fill
in again Monday night so we`ll keep an eye on that potential with
future updates.