Forecast Discussion
503
FXUS64 KMEG 211734
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
- Significant river flooding will continue across portions of the
Mid-South through this week.
- Showers and thunderstorms will move through the Mid-South today,
with a low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms across
northeast Mississippi this afternoon.
- Unsettled weather will continue throughout the week with
multiple rounds of storms possible, especially later this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
A line of thunderstorms continues to push through the Mid-South
early this morning along a weakening frontal boundary. Over the
next few hours, this boundary will eventually become stationary
across NE MS, keeping showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
for much of day with the remainder of the area drying out. While
upper-level support is well to our north, most CAMs are bringing a
small instability axis up through NE MS by this afternoon. While
the threat is very low, this will introduce a conditional threat
for a few strong to severe thunderstorms generally around midday
into the afternoon hours. Damaging winds and hail (up to quarter
size) are the main concern. Shear will likely remain < 30 kts
across all heights, so there does not appear to be a tornado
threat.
Aforementioned frontal boundary will remain stalled over NE MS
Tuesday, keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms around.
Quasi-zonal flow aloft will keep us stuck in an unsettled pattern
by midweek and continue into the weekend. North MS will have the
highest shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday, with chances
expanding northward at times Thursday and into Friday. Weak
shortwave will pass through Friday, likely bringing a higher
chance of showers and thunderstorms along with it. By the weekend,
there begins to be some spread in ensemble guidance with how
quickly we will be able to move out of this unsettled pattern,
with the ENS favoring a slightly drier solution and GEFS favoring
a slightly wetter solution. Really the biggest forecast note for
the second half of the week will be our QPF amounts. While QPF
amounts are generally in the 1 to 2 inch range across the area,
our soils remain very saturated from the heavier rain earlier in
the month. This could introduce a least a small threat for
additional flooding across the Mid-South, especially across NE AR,
the MO Bootheel, and NW TN. Do I think things will get as bad as
they were? No. Do I think this will not help our rivers that are
already running high? Yes. Something to keep in mind and watch
over the next few days. If QPF amounts increase at all, the
concern for flooding will likely increase as well. With the
unsettled pattern, expect for high temperatures to remain above
average in the 80s for most of the Mid-South.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
VFR forecast through period at all sites except TUP. High pressure
is currently making its way in to the region to the north of a
stationary boundary located over northeast Mississippi. Areas
north of the boundary are to see high clouds and weak
northerly/variable winds with some cumulus below 3 kft this
afternoon. A few showers may impact MEM tomorrow, but confidence
is low in this scenario at this time.
TUP is expected still experience rain showers and drops into MVFR
this afternoon before prevailing MVFR CIGs and a lull in rainfall
in to the overnight hours. A few thunderstorms have been shown in
recent CAM guidance across northern MS along the stationary
boundary after 06z. However, timing and coverage are still
uncertain. So, the PROB30 has been retained from 06z - 12z to
cover this uncertainty. Showers associated with any storms may
still be present through the end of the period after 12z.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JAB