Forecast Discussion
761
FXUS64 KMEG 142341
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
641 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
- Dry weather will persist through at least Sunday morning.
Temperatures will remain above normal through Sunday.
- A Wind Advisory is in effect for Sunday and Sunday night for
wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph.
- Confidence is increasing in the potential for severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds late Sunday afternoon through
Sunday evening.
- Freeze Watches are in effect for the Mid-South Monday and
Tuesday mornings.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
The front that drifted south and stalled across the Mid-South
last night was located near the KY/TN border at noon. The front
will continue to lift north toward the OH Valley this afternoon.
Increasing southerly flow will bring milder temperatures into the
region with highs well into the 70s later today. Tonight will be
mild with lows in the 50s thanks to strengthening low level flow
ahead of the next disturbance.
The next storm system is taking shape out West as a powerful
piece of energy is moving through the northern Rockies at this
time. A Colorado low will intensify and quickly move across the
Plains to SW Iowa by 12z Sunday, and a strong cold front will
extend south across the Southern Plains. The upper trough will
continue to deepen and move into the Plains Sunday morning. This
will result in a tightening of the surface pressure gradient
across the region with gusty southerly winds developing. These
gusty winds will start to develop fairly early Sunday morning
with gusts above 30 mph by sunrise across NE AR and the MO
Bootheel. Gusty southerly winds will increase to 35 to 45 mph by
mid-morning with the highest gusts over NE AR and the MO
Bootheel. Strong northwest winds will continue after the front
during the evening hours. A Wind Advisory is in effect for most
of the Mid-South for Sunday into Sunday evening.
As the cold front moves across Arkansas on Sunday, the upper
trough will start to take on a negative tilt, and a powerful 105-
125 kt mid-level jet will punch into the region. Strong lift, as
evidenced by immense height falls, will spread over the frontal
zone, and a line of storms will quickly develop into a QLCS
across Arkansas. Meanwhile, ahead of the line, a 40-55 kt low-
level jet will advect increasingly unstable air into the Mid-
South. Surface dewpoints are expected to climb into the lower
60s just ahead of the line, though the quality of the low-level
moisture is fairly shallow. Nonetheless, MLCAPE values of 750-
1250 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates > 7 C/km denote enough
instability to support a vigorous line of storms. There is strong
evidence of a stratospheric intrusion with this very deep upper
trough. The 2 PVU level reaches as low as 600 mb on Sunday
evening. This may help the QLCS tap into those very strong winds
aloft and bring them to the surface within any bowing segments.
This line of storms should intensify during the early evening
hours when the strongest lift combines with the greatest
instability. As a result of the increased wind threat, we could
see corridors of 75+ mph gusts with these storms. There is an
Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms across the entire
Mid-South Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The line of
storms looks to enter NE AR around 4 pm and exit NE MS by 12 am
Monday.
Along with the damaging wind threat, low-level hodographs are
favorable for embedded spin-up tornadoes along the line of
storms. 0-1km helicity values of 250-350 m2/s2, strong low-level
veering, and favorable 0-3km wind shear vectors will support QLCS
tornadoes in bowing segments or where breaks in the line of
storms occur. EF2s are a reasonable maximum intensity for
tornadoes for this event.
There is a cap in place ahead of the line, though it is weaker on
this morning`s 12z CAMs. Some of the CAMs are hinting at some
development in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. This
environment ahead of the front is not great for supercells, but it
may be enough and certainly bears watching, since storms that
develop ahead of the line would have an increased tornado threat.
Once the front moves through, winds will quickly shift to the
west and northwest and gust 30 to 40 mph for several hours. Much
colder air will rush in, and temperatures will likely fall below
freezing over a large portion of the forecast area by Monday
morning. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire Mid-South,
save a few counties in NE MS. Monday will be very cold with brisk
NW winds continuing and highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Monday night/Tuesday morning will be the peak of this cold snap
as arctic high pressure settles over the region and temperatures
dive into the upper teens and 20s. A Freeze Watch has been issued
areawide for Monday night/Tuesday morning. The remainder of the
week will feature dry weather and a warm-up with temperatures
hitting the upper 70s and lower 80s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
A 45kt LLJ will dip down across the Mid-South around 06Z tonight
resulting in a LLWS across all sites through tomorrow afternoon.
A tight pressure gradient will develop ahead of a fast moving
cold front and result in south/southwest wind gusts in excess of
35 kt, beginning around 12Z. VFR conditions will prevail through
much of the TAF period, though intermittent drops to MVFR can`t
be ruled out ahead of the aforementioned front. SHRA out ahead of
the main front are expected to begin impacting JBR/MEM/MKL around
21Z. TSRA will reduce visibilities and lead to potentially
greater than 40 kt wind gusts at MEM/JBR and MKL/TUP next
issuance. Winds will shift northwest behind the front toward the
end of the period.
AEH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Fire weather concerns remain low for the next few days. Relative
humidities will be on the increase ahead of a strong cold front
approaching the region on Sunday. Fuel moisture remains high
following Wednesday`s rainfall. Another wetting rain is expected
late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening as a line of
thunderstorms moves across the Mid-South, followed by much colder
temperatures for early next week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.
Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
MOZ113-115.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
MOZ113-115.
MS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for MSZ001>014-
020.
Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
MSZ001>015-020>022.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AEH
