Forecast Discussion

813
FXUS64 KMEG 220537
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1137 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Arctic air will remain over the region tonight with bitterly cold
temperatures. A gradual warming trend will return temperatures
closer to normal by Saturday. Rain chances will return Saturday
night through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 239 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

A 1042 mb arctic high is moving across the Southern Plains this
afternoon. Brisk NW winds are resulting in temps from the upper
teens north to mid 20s south with wind chills mostly in the teens.
This is a really dry airmass with dewpoints below zero across the
northern half of the Mid-South.

This extremely dry airmass combined with surface high pressure
moving over the Mid-South will result in superb radiational
cooling conditions, especially east of the MS River where winds
will remain light or calm most of the night. Lows will range from
the mid single digits near the TN River to the lower teens over
the Delta. Southerly winds will start to develop across NE AR and
the MO Bootheel so even though temps will not drop quite as far,
wind chills will approach or go slightly below zero. As a result
have elected to expand the Cold Weather Advisory to cover the
entire Mid-South from 9 pm this evening to 9 am Wednesday.
Remember to protect people, pets, pipes and plants.

Arctic high pressure will retreat east and southerly flow will
expand across the Mid-South on Wednesday with highs climbing into
the 30s. Wednesday night will not be quite as cold with lows
mostly in the 20s.

A couple of mid level troughs will move through Thursday and
Thursday night. Temperatures will warm a bit more on Thursday with
readings in the upper 30s into the mid 40s before a reinforcing
front moves through Thursday evening. This will stall the warm up
on Friday as another shot of cold air overspreads the Mid-South.
Would not surprised to see a few flurries as well. High pressure
will shift east for Saturday and increasing southerly winds will
bumps temps well into the 40s.

The eastern US upper trough will continue to lose its grip on the
region this weekend and shift east as a cutoff low develops over
the SW US. The upper flow becomes more zonal across the Mid-
South. A cold front will move slowly across the region Sunday
through Monday, perhaps stalling at times. QPF amounts right now
range from less than 0.25 inches along the KY border to 1.50
inches across parts of north MS. Confidence in the QPF placement
is low since the amount of moisture that overruns the front and
how far north that moisture reaches is in question. This placement
will be modulated the location of the eastern US trough and how
dominate surface high pressure is across the Middle MS Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025


VFR continues as Arctic high pressure dominates. Light winds
overnight should pick up to 5-10 kts from the south by mid morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CAD