Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 270450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1150 PM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021

Updated 06z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 805 PM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021/

UPDATE...Evening Update.


Temperatures have fallen into the 60s across most of the Midsouth
with a few locations in the low 70s. Morning lows should be in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Dry conditions are expected for several more
days. Our next chance of significant rain will be Wednesday and
Thursday with the highest chance in the western half of the


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021/

Surface high over the eastern United States will continue to be
the main feature over the next few days. This will give us above
normal temps in the mid 80s to start the week and little to no
chance for rain over the next few days. The high will weaken and
shift some by mid week opening up the chance for some showers
across western portions of the forecast area on Wednesday and
Thursday. Guidance varies on how far east the showers could get
but will lean on the western solution for this cycle. Guidance
then diverges late in the period with placements of fronts and
high positions. Have continued the drier solution for this cycle
as the ECMWF shows a decent high building in again over the
eastern US that would keep the Mid South dry while the GFS shows a
much more wet pattern with a front draped over the area.


/06z TAFs/

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Southerly
winds will become light then begin to increase at the end of the
TAF period. JBR is expected to have gusts up to 20kts by tomorrow
afternoon. Gusts will subside by tomorrow evening.