Forecast Discussion


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FXUS64 KMEG 161131
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
631 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Latest surface analysis places a cold front just east of the
Tennessee River at this hour. Temperatures are mainly in the 50s
behind the front, with a few areas still in the mid 60s over
northeast Mississippi ahead of the front. A few lingering showers
remain over portions of west Tennessee and north Mississippi, but
will quickly shift east of the area by sunrise. Today will be on
the cool side as moderate CAA will keep temperatures at bay,
albeit plentiful sunshine. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s
areawide, northwest winds, and abundant sunshine.

Surface high pressure will remain anchored over the Mid-South
through Friday. This will result in a decent warming trend
through the weekend. Expect highs similar to today on Thursday
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Friday.

There is still considerable model disagreement for this weekend`s
forecast. The main concern continues to be the degree of moisture
return ahead of a shortwave on Saturday. The Euro continues to be
bullish, with WAA showers and a few thunderstorms moving into the
area Saturday afternoon and hanging around through Sunday. The
Canadian and GFS are still advertising low end POPs and light
precipitation accumulations through the entire weekend. Decided to
stick with low end POPs (