Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KMEG 191118
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
618 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
A warming trend will begin today as a ridge of high pressure
gradually moves southeast towards Florida by tonight. Temperatures
this afternoon will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees, and 60s
to lower 70s for Wednesday. Rain chances will return for Thursday
into Friday as a trough of low pressure moves through the region.
Drier weather is expected to return for the upcoming weekend with
a return of showers and thunderstorms for early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite shows an upper-level trough
encompassing the Eastern United States while a cutoff upper-level
low is situated over Arizona this morning. Early morning surface
analysis places a 1026 mb ridge of high pressure over the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Clear skies and nearly calm winds have allowed
for excellent radiational cooling across the Mid-South.
Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT range from the middle 20s to around 30
degrees over West Tennessee and lower 30s elsewhere.
The aforementioned surface high will gradually move southeast
towards Florida by tonight. Low-level warm air advection and the
development of a low level jet this afternoon will allow for
temperatures to recover in the 50s to around 60 degrees. A
combination of low surface dewpoints and elevated 20ft winds may
result in an elevated fire danger across areas north of I-40 this
afternoon. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer in the upper 30s
to lower 40s. Warmer temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s
are expected for Wednesday as 925 mb temperatures warm to 11-14C.
Short-term models indicate the cutoff upper-level will move into
the Lower Mississippi Valley for Thursday into Friday. This low is
expected to be absorbed into a mid-level northern stream trough
over the Mississippi Valley. Operational and ensemble model
solutions have trended slightly south with the precipitation from
previous runs. As a result, pops were adjusted down to account
for this trend. Rainfall amounts may average between one to two
tenths of an inch at best.
Drier weather will return for the upcoming weekend as surface and
upper-level ridging builds back into the region. Shower and
thunderstorm chances are anticipated to return early next week as
an upper-level trough rotates through the Mississippi Valley.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
No significant changes needed to the 12z TAFs. VFR forecast will
continue for the next 24 hours. Southwest winds will pick up this
afternoon at JBR/MKL/MEM with gusts between 20 and 25 knots. Gusty
winds will subside around 00z to less than 10 knots for the
remainder of the period. Low level jet develops this evening and
could result in LLWS at JBR/MKL.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ113-115.
MS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ001>017-
020>024.
TN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...TAB