Forecast Discussion
258 FXUS64 KMEG 221121 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 521 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 458 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 -A gradual warming trend will start this weekend with high temperatures reaching 60 degrees by Monday and mild weather continuing through the week. -A weak frontal passage will bring rain chances to the Mid-South Wednesday and Wednesday night though amounts will be light. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 247 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 A 1035 mb arctic high pressure system is centered over the southern U.S. early this morning. Temps have fallen in the teens and 20s across the region. A cloud deck associated with a fast moving upper level disturbance will halt the temp fall as it spreads across the Mid-South this morning. Models are struggling with this deck but it looks like it will dim the sun until at least this afternoon when the disturbance pushes east into Middle Tennessee. Temps will start a warming trend today as highs reach into the 30s and 40s. Mostly clear skies and light winds will result in another chilly night with lows in the 20s by Sunday morning. Another upper level disturbance will skirt along the Gulf coast on Sunday bringing clouds to southern sections of the forecast area. A shower is not out of the question across the very southern counties of the Mid-South. Light SW winds will help temps into the 40s and lower 50s Sunday afternoon. Zonal flow aloft and weak surface high pressure will prevail Monday through Wednesday resulting in dry weather and increasingly mild temps. Highs will climb to around 60 by Monday with many locations hitting 70 by Wednesday. A weak cold front will move through Wednesday afternoon and night. Latest model runs depict an increasingly moisture starved scenario and latest QPF amounts look quite meager with less than a quarter inch depicted. The airmass behind the front is of Pacific origin so highs only drop into the 50s and lower 60s for the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Guidance continues to struggle with initializing the midlevel VFR deck over the airspace. By early afternoon, expect this cloud deck to begin clearing with SKC conditions returning in the evening. Otherwise, winds will gradually veer south through the period. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...ANS