Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 220520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1120 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021


Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 827 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021/


Cold front is south of the region this evening. Another upper
level disturbance will approach the Lower MS valley overnight and
rain will skirt the southern counties of the forecast area
roughly south of a line form Clarksdale to Tupelo. Further north
hi-res models are hinting at fog developing but that seems
unlikely given the amount of middle/high cloudiness streaming into
the region. Will keep an eye on it. Lows will range from the 30s
north to mid 40s south. Forecast on track.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021/

Light rain associated with a cold front sinking south is
continuing across our southern counties in MS. High pressure
builds in with rain ending by around 17Z Friday. With high
pressure in place Saturday will be dry. Temperatures are currently
in the upper 40s and low 50s. Low temperatures will range from
the mid to upper 30s in TN, MO Bootheel and NE AR to mid 40`s in
MS and southern AR.

In the meantime a trough continues to build and digs over SoCal. It
will shift over the southwest and by Sunday morning we should see
rain return to the area. With the low deepening and loving across
the area on Monday. Significant rain in the 2-3in range is expected
with the potential for locally higher amounts. By late Monday night/
early Tuesday morning the low pressure has crossed the area and
shifted east which will end the rain west to east by 06Z. We are dry
for the remainder of Tuesday.

Another trough and cutoff low deepens and digs in over the Desert
Southwest. This will again move across the Southwest and Texas and
approach the area by Wednesday. This should bring us more rain
Wednesday into Thursday. There is still model disagreement so
confidence remains low.



06Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue across much of the Mid-South for most
of the forecast period. Some low clouds and light rain continues
to move across extreme southern sections of the Mid-South and this
will continue through Friday morning. Some patchy areas of fog may
develop overnight mainly across northern sections of the Mid-
South. Winds will be light and variable overnight before becoming
northeast at 5 to 10 knots on Friday.