Forecast Discussion
410 FXUS64 KMEG 270447 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1147 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 927 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 00Z upper air analysis depicts a mid-level longwave trough axis extending from New England to the Hill Country of Texas and bisecting the Mid-South. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show a weak remnant MCV centered near southeast Poinsett County. This has allowed rain showers to persist across portions of the Mid-South into mid-evening. Latest 00Z short-term model trends indicate another shortwave trough will move into the area towards sunrise Saturday. Will make some modifications to overnight lows and rain chances based on short-term trends. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in good shape overall. CJC && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Wet and unsettled conditions with below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. The pattern begins to shift next week as a ridge builds in, increasing temperatures and decreasing rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 An MCV is currently churning over west Tennessee, giving way to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The latest CAMs suggest a very similar setup early tomorrow morning with yet another MCV surging up from the Gulf Coast. Expect a persistence forecast with below normal temperatures and scattered showers/thunderstorms throughout the day tomorrow. This setup is also supportive of cold air funnels, which have been reported widely with the showers we saw today. Patchy fog development is certainly possible areawide as well due to the localized wind minimum combined with a plethora of excess moisture. Unfortunately, the pattern begins to shift hotter and drier early next week. An upper level ridge will begin to build over the south-central CONUS next week, nudging temperatures back into uncomfortably hot territory. The ridge`s influence doesn`t quite extend east of the Mississippi River by Monday, so this will be a warming trend from west to east. NBM probabilities depict a high chance (>70%) of temperatures above 90 degrees areawide starting on Tuesday. Forecast surface analyses suggest a broad surface ridge setting up over the central Gulf Coast midweek as well. This dominant ridging at all levels unmistakably spells out hot and humid conditions for the Mid-South. We`ll certainly need heat headlines, maybe as early as Monday but more likely by Tuesday. CAD && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 An upper level low pressure system will keep scattered SHRAs near all terminals through much of the period. A more robust upper level wave will bring higher chances of prevailing SHRAs to MEM and JBR overnight through Saturday morning. TSRAs will be possible by late afternoon, but should be widely scattered in coverage. Occasional MVFR CIGs and VSBYs will accompany +SHRAs. Winds will remain 7 knots or less and mainly from the south. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...AC3