Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMEG 270528 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 .UPDATE... See the 06z aviation discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 854 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020/ DISCUSSION...GOES-16 satellite trends this evening indicate a mid-level shortwave trough moving across portions of Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, and the Mid-South. KNQA WSR-88D radar trends depict scattered showers over Northeast Mississippi, and a thin line of showers stretching from Tiptonville, TN to Jonesboro, AR, moving east southeast. As of 7 PM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Latest short term models including CAM solutions suggest a majority of the rain showers should depart during the early morning hours as the shortwave trough pulls away from the region. Will adjust forecast to account for these short term trends. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in decent shape. CJC PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020/ DISCUSSION... Light rain continues this afternoon across portions of North Mississippi and Northwest Tennessee. The band of rain located across Northwest Tennessee is just ahead of a weak front. The band will gradually sink to the southeast during the evening and overnight hours. Meanwhile, the area of rain over North Mississippi is expected to expand in coverage this evening as a shortwave moves into the area. The rain will gradually shift east over time. Drizzle and fog may occur during the evening and overnight hours along and ahead of the weak front that will be sinking southeast. A few of the CAM models are showing some light rain developing in the northwest flow on Monday. The rain could skirt portions of Northeast Arkansas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The next best chance for rain will occur Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper trough moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This system bears watching as the NAM shows much colder air moving into the area with this system thus changing rain to snow Tuesday Night across much of West Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northeast Arkansas. The ECMWF is a little bit warmer and only has the precipitation change occurring near the AR/MO and KY/TN state lines. The GFS and Canadian are the warmest models which keep precipitation all rain. For now just mentioned a slight chance of snow for areas along the AR/MO and KY/TN state lines. Models beyond Wednesday diverge greatly on solutions. Another system could impact the Mid-South on Friday. Then by next weekend differences grow further as the Canadian keeps a broad upper trough over the region while the ECMWF builds and upper ridge over the Midwest. Stay tuned. KRM && .AVIATION... /06z TAFs/ IFR/LIFR ceilings will persist throughout the night with areas of fog and drizzle developing overnight. Visibility is expected to drop to 1/2 mile at times along/west of the MS River and into northwest MS overnight, likely remaining in the 1-4 mile range farther east. Otherwise, expect drizzle to end by sunrise with low ceilings hanging around through around 18z. Slightly drier air will advect into the area tomorrow behind a weak cold front, shifting winds from the northwest at 5-8 kts. Low clouds may fill in again Monday night so we`ll keep an eye on that potential with future updates. MJ && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$