Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMEG 280934 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 334 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Another cold day is expected today as a cold front traverses the Mid-South. Temperatures will remain only in the 40s this afternoon with windchill temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s. The weather pattern will turn warmer and more active on Wednesday and persist into the weekend. We will see good chances for widespread rainfall Thursday into Friday and then again Saturday night into Sunday. Dry and near normal temperatures are expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Monday) Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 A progressive weather pattern will lead to periods active weather over the next 7 days, however, severe weather is not anticipated. A reinforcing front will move through the Mid-South today and deliver another shot of polar air to the region. Highs will struggle to climb out of the 40s areawide as moderate CAA filters into the region throughout the day. Temperatures will fall back into the 20s and 30s again after sundown, but should quickly stabilize and slightly warm overnight as good low level mixing ramps up ahead of the next system. The weather pattern will abruptly shift on Wednesday as strong return flow lifts temperatures back into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Rain showers will move in as early as Thursday morning and continue through Friday morning as a shortwave and associated surface low eject out of the Southern Plains. A few rumbles of thunder are possible Thursday night into Friday morning as the shortwave takes on a negative tilt and a 120 knot jet streak moves overhead. The good news is that the severe threat will remain confined to our south, as the warm sector will occlude to our southwest before reaching our area. The main impact with this system will be moderate to heavy rainfall, mainly along and west of the Mississippi River. Rainfall totals will approach 2 inches to the west of the river with lesser amounts to the east. We will see a brief reprieve from the rain Friday afternoon into Saturday morning as upper level high pressure builds north into the region downstream of a deepening trough over the Desert Southwest. Another round of showers will develop across the area late Saturday as a weak surface low tracks directly over the region. Rainfall will be mostly confined to areas south of the I-40 corridor, as the surface low takes a more southerly track. Northwest flow aloft will setup over the region early next week and persist through the long term forecast. Near normal temperatures are expected early in the week. However, models are hinting at another shot of arctic air by the middle of next week. Stay tuned. AC3 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 VFR conditions expected through the period. Light W/SW winds overnight will increase to 4-8 kts and veer NW/NNW Tuesday morning with a reinforcing cold front. Light winds expected for Tuesday evening. CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...CJC