Forecast Discussion
581 FXUS64 KMEG 232352 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 552 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025 - Near-record warm temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, lasting through Saturday. - A few light showers and patchy drizzle are anticipated through Tuesday night. - A cold front will bring widespread rainfall on Sunday, followed by a significant drop to below-freezing temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025 A 1030 mb surface high pressure area sits off the Carolinas this morning. Return flow continues across the Mid-South with low clouds, patchy drizzle, and isolated brief showers. Dewpoints have climbed above 60 across most of the area, and highs will climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon despite cloud cover. A few light showers and patchy drizzle will continue through tonight with clouds lingering through much of Wednesday. Strong upper-level high pressure will continue to build over the region, and we should start to see more sun toward the end of the week. Forecast soundings do show the low-level moist layer breaking up and mixing out. Temperatures will climb into the 70s on Wednesday and remain there through Saturday. Lows will only drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s. These numbers are 20 to 25 degrees above normal. Some records are likely to fall across the Mid-South by Saturday, especially if the sun makes a sustained appearance, which could push temperatures toward the NBM90 guidance (upper 70s). A strong cold front will push through on Sunday with widespread rain followed by much colder temperatures. Monday`s weather will feel a whole lot different than Christmas with morning lows in the 20s and afternoon highs in the 30s, and wind chills in the teens. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025 Tricky TAF set this go around. How far south a front to our north sags will indicate whether we`ll be predominantly VFR or MVFR overnight. Given extra travel with the holiday season, decided to prevail MVFR overnight across the airspace. Increased dewpoints has left the atmosphere pretty saturated, therefore, a few pop-up showers are not out of the question overnight, but confidence was not high enough to prevail in TAFs. Fog at MKL/TUP with reduced visibilities, however, does look more likely overnight, also aided by the aforementioned front. Ceilings will slowly improve to VFR by the early afternoon hours as winds increase to around 10 kts. Southwest winds will be light overnight before increasing tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025 A 20% to 40% chance of light showers or drizzle will continue through Tuesday night. Fire danger will remain very low all week as humidity will remain elevated in the 60% to 80% range. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected each day as a strong upper level high pressure system builds over the region. A medium to high chance of widespread wetting rainfall will arrive on Sunday, followed by a blast of Arctic air. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...AEH