Forecast Discussion
365 FXUS64 KMEG 051748 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Warm and humid weather will continue with high temperatures in the 90s and with heat indices near 100 degrees. - Rain chances will remain low (less than 20%) today and Sunday before increasing again through the upcoming work week (40%-60%). && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Smoke from Independence Day festivities lingers across much of the Midsouth resulting in slightly diminished visibility(3-5 miles). Otherwise, its a typical muggy midsummer night across the region, featuring clear skies and temperatures in the low to middle 70s. Expect sunrise temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Weak return flow will set-up across the Midsouth this afternoon as surface high pressure shifts over middle Tennessee. A low amplitude northern stream trough will shift out of the Northern Plains across the Great Lakes tonight. Our brief break from oppressive humidity will come to an end this afternoon as dew points creep back into the 70s. The Midsouth should remain below heat advisory criteria (103 heat index) today, but may approach criteria Sunday south of Memphis in the delta. NBM guidance has been a bit too warm for the last few days, so confidence is not quite high enough to issue a heat advisory at this time. As moisture levels increase, so will our chance of rainfall. Showers and isolated thunderstorms should be mostly confined to west Tennessee near the Tennessee River, and northeast Mississippi today. Tomorrow, as the aforementioned trough shifts across the Great Lakes, rain chances should increase area-wide. WPC`s 1-2 day QPF guidance remains very low (generally below one tenth of an inch), but as most Midsoutherners know, any storm is capable of higher totals on a smaller scale. Keep an eye to the sky and expect locally heavy rain and lightning if you see a storm developing in your area. Next week, weak zonal flow will prevail across the MidSouth. A couple of low amplitude northern stream troughs will move out of the Central Plains and across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. These features will keep our chance of rain and thunderstorms elevated through the work week. Widespread strong or severe storms are not anticipated, but once again, expect frequent lightning and locally heavy rain from any storms that impact your area. High temperatures look to be in the low to middle 90s all of next week. 30/Sirmon && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into much of this evening with generally light southerly winds. A few showers and isolated storms may develop near the TN River this evening but confidence is too low to mention at any of the taf sites. Light winds may lead to some patchy fog again overnight primarily at MKL/TUP/JBR and have retained MVFR visibility in the latest forecast between 08z and 12z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 No fire weather concerns throughout the forecast period. High humidity and light winds are expected to continue through the weekend. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible across northeastern Mississippi and west Tennessee near the Tennessee River this afternoon. Rain chances will increase in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel late Sunday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...TAB