Forecast Discussion


373
FXUS64 KMEG 251753
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1253 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated 18z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1011 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020/

DISCUSSION...

A bit of a chilly late morning here across the Mid-South.
Temperatures are having a hard time getting into the 70s due to
cloud cover, which will be the main story today. Clouds should
begin to clear later this evening as a trough, currently over
Nashville`s area, continues to push towards the east. Otherwise,
expect a mostly dry day today with highs generally in the mid 70s.
Only changes made today were to the high temperatures this
afternoon.

SGW

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020/

DISCUSSION...

There is patchy fog across much of the Midsouth, however a thick
layer of low clouds has so far prevented dense fog from becoming a
problem across the area. Temperatures are mostly in the mid 60s
with morning lows expected to fall to around 60 degrees across
most of the region. We will likely see more clouds than sun again
today, with the best chance of significant sunshine in Northeast
Arkansas. However, today should be the first dry day in at least a
couple with the possibility of showers and isolated thunderstorms
returning Sunday.

Highs today should be mainly in the mid 70s today. Sunshine
tomorrow should help boost high temperatures back into the lower
80s.

For most of the next 7 days a trough will remain in place across
the eastern half of the Nation. Surface high pressure and a weak
ridge Saturday will quickly deamplify for the second day of the
weekend and a cutoff low over East Texas will track across North
Louisiana then over the Midsouth. This feature may help initiate
a few showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday, mainly over North
Mississippi. Highs should be in the low to middle 80s.

A robust cold front will sweep across the Midsouth Monday
accompanied by a round of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Instability looks minimal, so strong or severe storms are not
expected. Highs Monday should be in the 70s with Monday morning
temperatures in the low 50s.

There is quite a bit of discrepancy in the precipitation forecast
next week, but overall cool conditions should persist. The ECMWF
features another cutoff low impacting the Midsouth resulting in a
higher chance of rain midweek. However the GFS is largely dry
featuring a broad deep trough over the area. Will lean toward the
drier (and persistent) solution for now. After midweek, another
cold front is expected to move across the region. Precipitation
should be minimal due to lack of moisture ahead of the front. As
a result, below normal temperatures are expected all of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/
Expect MVFR conditions will prevail through most of the
period around for TUP and MKL through the TAF cycle. Fog will
again develop tomorrow morning at TUP and MKL with potentially IFR
conditions. Winds will be variable, at 2 to 5 kts then increase
by the end of the period.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$