Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 271127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
627 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019


Updated to include 12Z aviation discussion below.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019/


Mesoscale ridging behind the shortwave trough that brought us a
few showers and thunderstorms across Northeast Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel and Far Northwest Tennessee yesterday will
result in dry conditions area wide today. It will also be warm
across the region. High temperatures are expected to climb into
the middle 90s with heat indices in the middle to upper 90s. Out
West, a broad deep trough will deepen over the Desert Southwest
and a cutoff low will begin to shift out of the Central Rockies
over the next 48 hours. Late tomorrow, the Ridge and surface high
that has been dominating our weather pattern for the last few days
will sink South and East, releasing its grip on the Midsouth
weather. A few showers may develop late tomorrow over Eastern
Arkansas, but higher rain chances will likely hold off until
Wednesday. Guidance has the cutoff low almost stalling over East
Nebraska and Iowa midweek with an associated diffuse cold front
approaching the middle Mississippi River valley late Wednesday
into early Thursday. SPC has included East Arkansas and the
Missouri bootheel in a marginal risk for severe storms, but due to
guidance timing inconsistencies, I think I will hold off on
advertising any hazards in the HWO. Nevertheless a round of
showers and thunderstorms will likely sweep across the Midsouth
Wednesday night into Thursday. Rainfall totals look minimal,
probably less than one quarter of an inch, but highest in
Northeast Arkansas. After midweek, slightly cooler temperatures
are expected, but still slightly above normal. Expect Highs in the
middle to upper 80s, instead of the low to middle 90s.
Temperatures should trend slightly warmer through the weekend.
Zonal to weak Northwest flow is expected Friday through the
weekend allowing for a few showers and thunderstorms but no
organized systems look to be in store through next Sunday.



/12z TAFs/

VFR conds will continue through the period. Expect southwest winds
to increase between 10-15 kts with gusts 16-22 kts this
afternoon. After sundown, winds will remain around 8-9 kts for
MEM tonight...with all other stations generally 3-6 kts overnight.