Forecast Discussion
547 FXUS64 KMEG 021621 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Temperatures today will remain above normal with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees with weekend temperatures a few degrees cooler. - A chance for showers will return to the region early next week and linger through late next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The warmest day of the forecast period is underway with return flow at the surface and high pressure aloft. High temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints are slightly higher along and west of the Mississippi River as of 10 AM. Expect afternoon Cu development which could attempt to initiate showers, but given persistent dry air, accumulation is not expected. High pressure will slowly traverse east on Friday through the weekend knocking temperatures down a few degrees with highs in the low to mid 80s. The National Hurricane Center has highlighted a 10% chance of development along the Florida Gulf Coast over the next 7 days. This system would bring our first chance of rainfall as early as Sunday night. Given the 10% chance of development, high QPF and extreme impacts are unlikely. QPF will require close monitoring as we await development of the system, but climatologically PWs look to be above the 75th percentile with some areas (like along the Tennessee River) above the 90th percentile. The rainfall from the aforementioned system will be cut fairly short as a low pressure system tracking across the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes Region will aim for a cold front to cross around this time next week. This is still a good way out, but there is a good potential for widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southeast winds will average between 6-9 kts during the day with light winds at night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Light 20ft winds combined with elevated forecast fuel moisture keeps fire weather concerns low. Most of the area will have minimum RH values above 35%, but a few areas along the Mississippi River will hover around 30%. Rain chances increase early next week keeping a persistent minimal fire danger concern. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...CJC