Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 180859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
359 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019


Currently...Weak zonal flow aloft prevails across the region with
surface high pressure stationed over the Atlantic seaboard. Light
southerly flow is slowly notching up the humidity levels. Temps
range from the upper 60s to mid 70s with clear skies and some
patchy fog.

Today through Tuesday night...Hot and humid today. Will be
watching the MCS over SE Kansas to see how it evolves. The CAMs
show a variety of solutions ranging from completely falling apart
to holding together and reaching the Delta late this afternoon.
Will continue 20-30 pops across the western parts of the Mid-
South this afternoon. Highs will reach the lower to mid 90s again
and dewpoints will climb a bit. Heat index values will be
knocking on the door of advisory criteria across parts of the
Delta this afternoon. Right now it looks like most areas will
stay below 105F so will hold off on the advisory for now. Any
convection that makes it to the Mid-South will die off quickly
this evening with a quiet night expected along with mild temps.
Upper level high pressure building across the southern plains will
nose into the Mid-South Monday and Tuesday. Hot and humid
conditions will continue with heat index values likely climbing
above 105 degrees across parts of the Mid-South...especially the
Delta region. Heat advisories will probably be needed. Rain
chances will be limited with mainly diurnally driven
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Nighttime periods will be mostly
rain-free and warm with patchy fog.

Wednesday through Saturday...The upper ridge should continue to be
the main influence on Wednesday with hot and humid conditions
along with possible heat advisories. A mid level trough pushing
through the Great Lakes will send a cold front south toward the
region by the end of the week. GFS/ECMWF is some disagreement with
how far south the front will move. GFS brings the front into
northern areas by Friday morning while the ECMWF takes another
day. Either way the combination of the approaching surface front
and weakening upper ridge will translate into increased rain
chances toward the end of the week and slightly cooler




VFR conditions should prevail through the next 24+ hours at all
sites. Light winds, generally from the South. Scattered and
thunderstorms showers are expected to approach JBR after 19z and
MEM after 00z. Neither coverage nor intensity look significant at
this time.