Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 280934

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
334 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023


Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Another cold day is expected today as a cold front traverses the
Mid-South. Temperatures will remain only in the 40s this
afternoon with windchill temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s.
The weather pattern will turn warmer and more active on Wednesday
and persist into the weekend. We will see good chances for
widespread rainfall Thursday into Friday and then again Saturday
night into Sunday. Dry and near normal temperatures are expected
early next week.


(Today through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

A progressive weather pattern will lead to periods active weather
over the next 7 days, however, severe weather is not anticipated.

A reinforcing front will move through the Mid-South today and
deliver another shot of polar air to the region. Highs will
struggle to climb out of the 40s areawide as moderate CAA filters
into the region throughout the day. Temperatures will fall back
into the 20s and 30s again after sundown, but should quickly
stabilize and slightly warm overnight as good low level mixing
ramps up ahead of the next system.

The weather pattern will abruptly shift on Wednesday as strong
return flow lifts temperatures back into the upper 50s and lower
60s. Rain showers will move in as early as Thursday morning and
continue through Friday morning as a shortwave and associated
surface low eject out of the Southern Plains. A few rumbles of
thunder are possible Thursday night into Friday morning as the
shortwave takes on a negative tilt and a 120 knot jet streak moves
overhead. The good news is that the severe threat will remain
confined to our south, as the warm sector will occlude to our
southwest before reaching our area. The main impact with this
system will be moderate to heavy rainfall, mainly along and west
of the Mississippi River. Rainfall totals will approach 2 inches
to the west of the river with lesser amounts to the east.

We will see a brief reprieve from the rain Friday afternoon into
Saturday morning as upper level high pressure builds north into
the region downstream of a deepening trough over the Desert
Southwest. Another round of showers will develop across the area
late Saturday as a weak surface low tracks directly over the
region. Rainfall will be mostly confined to areas south of the
I-40 corridor, as the surface low takes a more southerly track.

Northwest flow aloft will setup over the region early next week
and persist through the long term forecast. Near normal
temperatures are expected early in the week. However, models are
hinting at another shot of arctic air by the middle of next week.
Stay tuned.



(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

VFR conditions expected through the period. Light W/SW winds
overnight will increase to 4-8 kts and veer NW/NNW Tuesday morning with
a reinforcing cold front. Light winds expected for Tuesday