Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 220138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
838 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Have made adjustments to forecast to show the declining rain
chances this evening, and the temperature drop expected behind the
front. We should be dry for the next several days before rain
chances increase by the weekend.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 648 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/


Skies are partly cloudy across much of the Mid-South this
afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to mid 80s.
The cold front currently moving through west Tennessee and eastern
Arkansas. Ahead of the front, a line of thunderstorms has developed.
Some of the thunderstorms may be producing gusty winds.

As the front continues to move south of the the region tonight,
more thunderstorms may develop. These thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds with locally heavy rainfall possible. Temperatures
will turn cooler behind the front with lows Tuesday morning in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. By Tuesday morning, the cold front will be
well to the south of the Mid-South with rain ending from extreme
southern areas. It will remain on the cool side on Tuesday with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Tuesday night will remain dry
and will be quite cool with lows Wednesday morning in the mid 50s
to around 60 degrees. Some locations could see record low
temperatures for Wednesday. Winds will shift to the south on
Wednesday bringing warmer air back into the region. Temperatures
will still be below normal on Wednesday with highs in the low to
mid 80s. Dry weather will continue through Wednesday and Wednesday

On Thursday, the warming trend will continue with temperatures
returning back to near normal levels. Some scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible as well.

A warm front will move through the region on Friday and a cold
front will approach the Mid-South on Saturday and into the region
for Sunday and Monday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms will
be found across the Mid-South on Friday with more widespread
thunderstorms expected for Saturday and Sunday. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible for next Monday. Temperatures will
be a little cooler than normal for Friday through next Monday.


/00z TAFs/
Convection has moved south of the TAF sites. Conditions have been
improving within the lat hour and should continue gradually
through the TAF period. Conditions will be VFR by this evening.