Forecast Discussion
786 FXUS64 KMEG 221831 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1231 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1230 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 - Very cold temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday mornings with lows in the teens and 20s, with warming temperatures by mid-week into the 60s. - Rain chances (60% chance or greater) will return Wednesday night into Thursday along a cold front. Thunderstorm potential remains very low at less than a 10% chance. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1230 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 This morning`s upper air analysis shows an upper-level ridge over the Rockies, and an upper level trough over the eastern half of the U.S. Surface analysis places a 1050 mb arctic high over North Dakota. Upstream 12Z upper air soundings show strong subsidence over the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys with winds aloft ranging from 30 to 40 kts in the 925-850 mb layer. Regional METAR observations have shown some of these elevated winds aloft mixing down to the surface especially along and west of the Mississippi River. As a result, mainly sunny skies, cold temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s, and occasionally gusty winds are expected this afternoon. The surface high will build southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley through Tuesday, with the dry and cold airmass continuing to bring well below normal temperatures to the Mid-South. Temperatures will fall back into the teens near the Tennessee River and 20s elsewhere tonight and Monday night. Highs on Monday will struggle to reach 40 degrees at most locations. Short-term winds were blended towards the NBM90th percentile and dewpoints toward the NBM10th percentile, due to the NBM underperforming on winds and overperforming on moisture. Temperatures will begin to moderate Tuesday and continue into Wednesday as high pressure moves southeast towards Florida and southerly winds return on the back side of high pressure. Long term ensemble solutions maintain northwest flow aloft into next weekend across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough and associated cold front will move from the Pacific Northwest into the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Confidence remains high (>70% chance) for rain showers. Conversely, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms remains very low (