Forecast Discussion
678 FXUS64 KMEG 171137 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 637 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - Hot and humid conditions are expected through Tuesday, with high temperatures reaching or exceeding 90 degrees in many locations. - An unsettled pattern starts late Monday, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Hot and humid conditions will persist into Tuesday as the Mid- South remains influenced by an upper level ridge centered off the coast of North Carolina. Above average temperatures are anticipated with daily highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. Synoptic patterns will begin to change on Monday as a deepening trough ejects northeast out of the Intermountain West. While not forecast to directly impact the Mid-South, this feature will effectively disrupt the outer periphery of the aforementioned ridge. Showers and a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out late Monday into Tuesday as this occurs. More widespread rainfall is anticipated on Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region. Given poor upper level support and a northerly displacement of the best shear and CAPE profiles, severe storms are not forecast. Instead, showers and a few strong thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day. Ensemble guidance is now in better agreement regarding the forecast for the end of the week, with both the GEFS and ENS developing an upper level low over Texas on Thursday. This feature will begin impacting the Mid-South late Thursday into Friday, bringing yet another round of showers and thunderstorms. While rainfall totals will depend on exactly where precipitation develops, the LREF continues to place a 50 - 60% chance of at least 1.5 inches of rain falling areawide through late Friday. Wet and unsettled conditions look to persist into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 VFR will continue through the period, along with deep south- southwesterly flow. A low level moisture axis over AR will support Isolated SHRA/TSRA late this afternoon. Convective instability and TS potential should wane before this activity lifts east toward MEM and JBR this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Fire weather conditions are not anticipated over the next week as humid conditions prevail. Wetting rain chances return late Monday into Tuesday and will last into next weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...PWB