Forecast Discussion
415
FXUS64 KMEG 230342
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025
- Temperatures will remain near-normal through the remainder of
the week, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
- The next chance for showers will arrive Saturday evening into
Sunday. Scattered rain chances will continue into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025
Another dry and cool overnight period is present across the Mid-
South, with temperatures currently spanning the 40s to 50s.
Persistence forecast remains in place through the end of the work
week, with dry conditions as a subtle ridge builds through the
region into Friday. As such, expect for sunny conditions with high
temperatures spanning the 70s. While a few locations could fall
into the upper 30s Friday morning along the TN River, frost is not
expected at this time.
Into this weekend, an approaching upper-level trough will exit the
plains, bringing the next chance of showers across the Mid-South.
Timing of these showers still varies a bit, but latest consensus
is a late afternoon to evening arrival with showers becoming more
widespread (60% to 70%) by Sunday. Models still struggle with the
evolution of the parent low-pressure system as it moves eastward,
so uncertainty remains in precipitation chances into early next
week. High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s on
Saturday, but fall back into the 60s on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025
VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace. Light southwest
winds will shift more north/northeast by the end of the TAF
period.
AEH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025
Dry conditions will persist on Thursday and Friday, with min RH
values in the 30% to 40% range. Winds will remain light through
the period, so no major fire weather conditions are expected.
Showers return to the forecast on Saturday into early next week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AEH