Forecast Discussion
321 FXUS64 KMEG 090435 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1135 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1126 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 - Rain chances will be limited to north Mississippi Friday and Saturday with dry weather over the remainder of the Mid-South. - Rain chances spread over the entire area Sunday into Tuesday next week as an upper low tracks across the area. Warmer and drier weather is on tap for the middle and end of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 949 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 A few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across northeast MS, while the majority of thunderstorms from earlier in the evening have dissipated. Still have some scattered clouds across the area, but winds have been calming near the surface. Already beginning to see some patchy fog develop along the MS River. While fog is not expected to be as widespread or dense as last night, it does look like many across portions of West TN and north MS will see at least some patchy fog overnight. Will keep an eye on trends to see if any products are needed. CMA && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 An upper trough is pushing across the MS River Valley. Scattered storms have developed across the Mid-South. SBCAPEs of around 2000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values 30-40 kts are supporting a few severe storms, some with very large hail, east of the MS River Minimal 0-1km helicity values and straight line hodographs point toward a very low tornado threat. As the upper trough continues moving east the higher 0-6km bulk shear values will quickly exit into Middle TN. As a result, storm intensity should start to wane over the next couple of hours. Loss of heating will also aid in storm dissipation. Patchy fog is likely over parts of West TN and north MS late tonight. The upper trough currently moving through the region will dive south and reform as an upper low near the Gulf Coast Friday and Saturday. As a result, dry and cool air will filter into the Mid- South. Low chances for rain will be limited to north MS during this period with most places remaining dry. Highs will be in the 70s. The Gulf Coast upper low will track north and spread showers back across the Mid-South during the Sunday through Tuesday time frame. Sunday night into Monday looks to be the wettest time period. Rainfall amounts will not be terribly heavy with 0.5 to 1.50 inches expected south of I-40 with lesser amounts to the north. The upper low will lift out of the area by midweek. Upper ridging will build into the area with dry and warm weather expected. Highs will reach the mid 80s by Wednesday and the upper 80s Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 An upper low will bring MVFR and intermittent IFR conditions across the airspace over the next few hours. Calm winds and clearing skies has allowed fog to develop along the Tennessee River. Fog will spread to MKL/TUP within the coming hours with reduced vsbys and potential LIFR conditions. Gusty northeast winds, up to 25 kts, will improve ceilings back to VFR and lift fog shortly after daybreak tomorrow. Wind gusts are expected to drop out after 00Z. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...AEH