Forecast Discussion
415 FXUS64 KMEG 230342 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 - Temperatures will remain near-normal through the remainder of the week, with highs in the low to mid 70s. - The next chance for showers will arrive Saturday evening into Sunday. Scattered rain chances will continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Another dry and cool overnight period is present across the Mid- South, with temperatures currently spanning the 40s to 50s. Persistence forecast remains in place through the end of the work week, with dry conditions as a subtle ridge builds through the region into Friday. As such, expect for sunny conditions with high temperatures spanning the 70s. While a few locations could fall into the upper 30s Friday morning along the TN River, frost is not expected at this time. Into this weekend, an approaching upper-level trough will exit the plains, bringing the next chance of showers across the Mid-South. Timing of these showers still varies a bit, but latest consensus is a late afternoon to evening arrival with showers becoming more widespread (60% to 70%) by Sunday. Models still struggle with the evolution of the parent low-pressure system as it moves eastward, so uncertainty remains in precipitation chances into early next week. High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s on Saturday, but fall back into the 60s on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace. Light southwest winds will shift more north/northeast by the end of the TAF period. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Dry conditions will persist on Thursday and Friday, with min RH values in the 30% to 40% range. Winds will remain light through the period, so no major fire weather conditions are expected. Showers return to the forecast on Saturday into early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...AEH