Forecast Discussion
646 FXUS64 KMEG 222350 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 550 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 210 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Temperatures will begin to warm on Monday as southerly flow returns. Rain chances increase on Tuesday and last through the Christmas holiday. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely by the end of the week, though the details are still too early to specify. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 210 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 A clear and cool afternoon is ongoing across the Mid-South with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Southerly winds will prevail through the foreseeable future, aiding in a warming trend through the end of the week. Fortunately, most guidance keeps increased dewpoints out of the region until Tuesday. Rain chances increase Christmas Eve as a large upper level trough swings across the Central Plains. The greatest rain chances will exist in extreme northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Continual moisture advection on the backside of the aforementioned trough will aid in more widespread shower development on Christmas Day. Thunder probabilities remain low (about 10%) through the holiday thanks to negligible CAPE. Therefore, expect a wet Christmas with temperatures in the 50s. An interesting synoptic pattern emerges on Thursday as a negatively tilted shortwave trough traverses the ArkLaTex region. Guidance continues to slow this system down, resulting in local impacts holding off until early Friday morning. Due to the timing of this feature coinciding with the lowest CAPE values, severe weather is not anticipated locally. Instead, the greater chances for severe weather exist on Thursday in areas of the ArkLaTex. If you are traveling through this area for the holiday, check the forecast from offices that serve this region: NWS Little Rock, Shreveport, Tulsa, and Fort Worth. On Saturday, another negatively tilted shortwave trough is progged to eject from the Rockies and quickly move over Texas. Guidance continues to struggle with the exact timing, strength, and location of this feature. However, it appears at this time that favorable kinematics will remain south of the region with LREF guidance painting a 10% chance of severe weather on Saturday. Regardless, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain through the rest of the period. ANS && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 VFR. Light SE Winds tonight becoming S on Monday and increasing to 8-11 kts. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...SJM