Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 082147

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
347 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023


Issued at 301 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

A very active pattern will continue across the Midsouth over the
next several days. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
tonight along across the Midsouth with some flooding possible
across northeast Arkansas into south Missouri. Another system is
expected late Friday into Saturday. Some colder air is possible in
association with this system, but for now we are not expecting
any wintry precipitation. Warmer conditions are expected Sunday
into early next week with yet another strong storm system possible
prior to midweek.


.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 301
PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

A bit more clearing has taking place across north Mississippi
this afternoon resulting in an airmass featuring 600-1000 J/KG of
CAPE. However, shortwave ridging ahead of the midlevel trough has
resulted in a weak cap this afternoon. Midlevel LAPSE rates are
limited, but low level shear is plenty to result in healthy
sustained rotating updrafts. Mid to upper level LAPSE rates are
only around 6-6.2C so hail shouldn`t be much of a threat. 0-1KM
SRH is 130-140 with 03-km SRH approaching 200 across much of north
Mississippi edging into far southwest Tennessee. The tornado
potential will likely increase into the late afternoon into the
early evening as the mid-level trough approaches the region and
low-level/deep- layer shear gradually increases. The Significant
Tornado parameter is up to 2 across much of northwest Mississippi
up to the Tennessee State line.

Overnight, instability should diminish fairly quickly, but
dynamic support should be enough to maintain preexisting rotating
updrafts as storms track to the north northeast. A 60 to 70kt LLJ
will likely precede the arrival of the cold front resulting in an
enhanced chance of damaging surface winds. Eventually, storms
should congeal along or just ahead of a cold front and sweep
across the Mississippi River. The threat for long tracked
tornadoes should gradually diminish, but we may still see some
QLCS type tornadoes along any bowing segments of a developing
line of storms through the late evening hours. Later still,
flooding could become a concern tonight. PW values of 1.6 to 2.25
could result in rain rates approaching 2 inches per hour across
northeastern Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel. The Storm
Prediction has included a portion of northwest Mississippi in an
Enhanced threat for severe thunderstorms this evening with a
slight to marginal risk across the remainder of the Midsouth.

Tomorrow should be dry and mild with high temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

Another cold front is expected to usher in a colder airmass late
Friday into early Saturday. near freezing temperatures may result
in a brief mix of rain and snow late Friday night into early
saturday, but for now no impact is expected.

Warmer temperatures are expected Sunday into early next week. We
may see high temperatures approach 60 degrees again Monday and
Tuesday. Unfortunately, these warm temperatures may set the
stage for another round of rain and thunderstorms late Tuesday
into Wednesday.



(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

Showers and a few thunderstorms are moving across the area as a
warm front is draped along the I-40 corridor. Variable conditions
from MVFR to LIFR. Thunderstorms are expected to pick up in
activity this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west.
Cigs and vsbys will remain low through most the TAF period. Wind
is ESE 8-12kts. Wind will veer SSW and elevate 15-20kts with gusts
to 30-35kts possible. At the end of the MEM TAF cigs and vsbys
will improve to VFR.



AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ009-018-026>028-035.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST Thursday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ113-115.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST Thursday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until noon CST Thursday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until noon CST Thursday for TNZ001>004-019>022-