SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 2289

MD 2289 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WESTERN NY...EXTREME NORTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST OH

Mesoscale Discussion 2289
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Areas affected...Western NY...Extreme Northwest PA...Far Northeast
OH

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 280716Z - 281115Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall, with rates over 2" per hour, are possible
across the Tug Hill Plateau over the next several hours. Moderate to
occasionally heavy snowfall is also anticipated farther south in the
immediate lee of Lake Erie.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery continues to show a loosely
organized band of heavy snowfall extending from eastern portions of
Lake Ontario eastward through Oswego, southern Jefferson, and Lewis
Counties. Overall organization of this band is expected to improve
over the next several hours as broad westerly flow across the lake
persists, and local convergence increases due to strengthening and
veering of the winds south of the lake. Some strengthening is
possible with the winds over the lake as well as the more
west-northwesterly winds north of the lake. Snowfall rates from 1"
to 2" per hour will continue for the next several hours, likely
maximizing in the 08Z-10Z time frame, when rates of 2" per hour are
most likely.

Farther south, a shorter lake fetch is contributing to a broad areas
of moderate snowfall in the lee of Lake Erie. Less low-level
convergence and weaker band organization should keep snowfall rates
a bit lower here than areas farther north, with rates generally
expected to maximize around 1" per hour.

..Mosier.. 11/28/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

LAT...LON   43587694 43987619 44157546 43557530 42217781 41548055
            41388156 41968137 42697907 43587694