SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 1284

MD 1284 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...East-central Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 141616Z - 141815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds are possible with a cluster of
storms moving towards east-central/southeast Oklahoma. Convective
trends in storm organization will need to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...As the low-level jet has diminished in intensity this
morning, convection in northeast Oklahoma has had outflow outpace
the stronger updrafts. While the 12Z observed sounding from Little
Rock showed poor lapse rates aloft, modifying the sounding with
current surface observation suggests around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Recently, storms have developed near the intersection of two outflow
boundaries south-southwest of Tulsa. Given the improvement in
low-level lapse rates into the afternoon downstream of this
activity, There is some potential for continued intensification.
Overall, tropospheric flow is rather weak. Organization of activity
will be largely dependent on cold pool dynamics as well as storms
not being undercut by outflow to the northeast. Damaging wind gusts
are possible at least on an isolated basis. The need for a watch is
uncertain. Observational/convective trends will need to be monitored
over the next few hours.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36199393 35819313 35349283 34839320 34409410 34369485
            34599587 35259694 36089613 36289474 36199393 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH