SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 265

MD 0265 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE RED RIVER

Mesoscale Discussion 0265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Areas affected...south-central into southeast Oklahoma to the Red
River

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 260409Z - 260615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will increase in coverage, and
sporadic marginally severe hail may occur.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of the diurnally driven cluster hail event
over North Texas, the air mass remains unstable with MUCAPE over
1000 J/kg extending into south-central OK this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms are already developing well north of the warm front
into OK, and this trend should persist given modest southwest flow
around 850 mb aiding theta-e advection. This zone of weak lift is
not expected to move much over the next several hours. However, this
is also near the midlevel temperature gradient, and as such, it
should be relatively easy to get further storm development. While
not as favorable an environment as farther south, at least isolated
marginally severe hail is forecast.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35319798 34579571 34339511 34039472 33709484 33669644
            33829711 34079745 34619785 34879810 35139816 35319798 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN