SPC Mesoscale Discussion
SPC MD 1656
MD 1656 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Areas affected...Oklahoma...North Texas into western Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121724Z - 121930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Sporadic damaging gusts are possible.
DISCUSSION...A complex convective scenario is unfolding early this
afternoon across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks.
Robust surface moisture is in place along with a myriad of
convectively reinforced/augmented boundaries and MCVs from southwest
KS, across OK and western AR. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
and expected to increase in coverage over the next several hours.
Weak ascent from partial diurnal heating, the surface boundaries and
remnant MCVs should result in numerous storms near and along these
features by this afternoon. Saturated thermodynamic profiles with
tall/skinny MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will result in moderate to
strong updrafts and efficient warm-precipitation generation
processes with PWATS near or exceeding 2 inches. Vertical shear is
modest (15-25 kt), though some slight mid-level enhancement has been
noted near the MCVs. With heavy water loading, occasional stronger
downdrafts capable of sporadic severe gusts are possible, especially
where higher storm coverage/clustering can occur. This appears most
likely ahead of the MCVs and along the surface boundaries over the
next few hours.
CAM guidance and observations show increasing storm coverage
gradually spreading eastward across much of OK into western AR. with
a few strong/severe gusts possible. While a localized increase in
the severe risk appears likely with any of these persistent
clusters, the relatively disorganized nature of the threat suggests
a WW is unlikely.
..Lyons.. 07/12/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...AMA...
LAT...LON 34189962 35720001 36849891 36889880 36999714 36389588
36209543 35989462 36109336 35459259 34299380 33619527
33239744 34189962
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC MD 1655
MD 1655 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR IN...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH...NORTHERN/WESTERN KY...SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHEAST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Areas affected...IN...western/central OH...northern/western
KY...southern IL...southeast MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 121642Z - 121915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated to scattered damaging winds are
possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A diffuse cold front is currently moving across parts
of IL/IN, with evidence of a gravity wave preceding the front from
northwest OH into east/central IN. Cumulus is gradually building in
the vicinity of this prefrontal feature, with recent storm
initiation noted across far northwest OH. With weak midlevel lapse
rates in place, initial convection may only gradually intensify.
However, rich moisture and MLCAPE increasing into the 1500-2500 J/kg
range could eventually support more robust storm development
along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is
generally weak, but steepening low-level lapse rates and 20-30 kt of
southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer may allow for a few
stronger outflow-driven clusters capable of isolated to scattered
damaging wind.
Farther southwest, a weak storm cluster is ongoing from southeast MO
into southern IL. Heating/destabilization ahead of this cluster may
allow for some intensification with time, accompanied by a threat
for at least isolated damaging winds as it moves generally
east-northeastward. Additional strong storms may develop in the wake
of this cluster later this afternoon, along the diffuse cold front
and any remnant outflow boundaries.
Coverage of the organized severe threat across the region remains
uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if a corridor of somewhat
greater damaging-wind potential becomes apparent.
..Dean/Mosier.. 07/12/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38048998 39468779 40478619 41658502 41718318 41348203
39998306 38628486 37958616 37208804 36768958 37028995
38048998
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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