SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 131

MD 0131 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0131
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri and
northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041349Z - 041545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few stronger storms are capable of large hail and severe
wind gusts this morning.

DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has increased across northeast Oklahoma
and southwest Missouri this morning in close proximity to a
shortwave trough moving across southeast Kansas and northern
Oklahoma. The elevated instability environment southwest of where
these storms are forming was well sampled by the OUN 12Z RAOB.
MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 8 to
8.5 C/km were sampled. The SGF RAOB sampled around 1300 J/kg MUCAPE
which may be more representative of the environment these storms
have developed within. This thermodynamic environment combined with
stronger shear farther northeast (~55 knots 0-6km per INX VWP) will
support the potential for mostly elevated supercells capable of
large hail and perhaps severe wind gusts. This threat will likely
persist for a few hours this morning as storms move along and north
of the surface boundary.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   36259565 37009514 37589444 37869419 38019375 38059326
            38049222 37909144 37639092 37219082 36849192 36289309
            35759399 35069523 35059545 35189574 36259565 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN