SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 2138

MD 2138 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

Mesoscale Discussion 2138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061042Z - 061215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few rotating showers/thunderstorms may persist for a few
more hours.

DISCUSSION...Moderate instability has pushed inland across southeast
Louisiana and vicinity with tropical mid 70s dewpoints present. In
addition, the low-level jet has strengthened to around 35 knots per
KHDC VWP. This has resulted in a few showers and occasional
thunderstorm development near the frontal zone along the Gulf Coast.
RAP forecast soundings show very weak deep layer/effective shear,
but some supercell characteristics have been observed on radar over
the past hour with 2 observed TDSs. Therefore, the stronger shear
between the LCL/EL (35 knots) must be sufficient for some updraft
rotation. Transient rotating updrafts and clockwise turning winds in
the lowest km have been apparently sufficient for a few brief
tornadoes. In addition, the low-level jet is significantly stronger
than forecast by most guidance. This low-level jet has weakened
slightly over the past hour on the KHDC VWP and should continue to
slowly weaken through the morning. Given the already borderline
environment these showers/storms have developed within, expect this
modest reduction in the low-level jet to bring an end to the threat
by daybreak.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 10/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29669092 30359099 30789079 31179030 31038983 30528974
            30038971 29558979 29238995 29179034 29239067 29309078
            29669092 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH