SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 290

MD 0290 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA

Mesoscale Discussion 0290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242037Z - 242230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A strong storm or two may pose a risk of marginally severe
hail (around 1 inch in diameter) and locally damaging gusts through
the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving at the intersection
of an east/west-oriented front and the sea breeze in parts of
central FL this afternoon. Here, ample diurnal heating amid
middle/upper 60s dewpoints and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates
(per recent MCO ACARS sounding) has contributed to enough buoyancy
for a strong storm or two. While low-level flow is weak, around
25-30 kt of midlevel flow (per MLB VWP and the ACARS sounding) may
favor brief storm organization. Marginally severe hail and locally
damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with the stronger cores. The
overall severe-storm risk is expected to remain localized and
marginal.

..Weinman/Hart.. 03/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27788203 28048209 28908162 29118130 29138092 28928073
            27938058 27588096 27558161 27788203 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN