SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 902

MD 0902 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 268... FOR SOUTHEAST NM...TX SOUTH PLAINS
MD 0902 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0902
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0426 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Areas affected...Southeast NM...TX South Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268...

Valid 242126Z - 242300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread across the eastern half of ww268
over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Scattered post-frontal convection that initiated along
the eastern slopes of the NM Rockies around mid day has gradually
expanded in areal coverage as it propagates southeast toward the TX
South Plains. This activity is evolving in advance of a digging
mid-level jet that will spread into west-central TX later this
evening. Latest radar trends, and large-scale support aloft, suggest
an MCS may evolve over the next few hours then mature as it spreads
over the northern portions of SJT CWA. Numerous updrafts are likely
producing at least marginally severe hail along the southeast NM/TX
border, and with time the threat for damaging winds may increase as
this complex transitions into an MCS.

..Darrow.. 05/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32270452 34290453 33230071 31200072 32270452 

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SPC MD 901

MD 0901 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA
MD 0901 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0901
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Areas affected...portions of central Mississippi into central
Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242028Z - 242200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts remain possible this afternoon
with the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not expected as the
severe threat should be sparse.

DISCUSSION...Multiple pulse-cellular storms have recently congealed
into short, loosely organized linear segments as they continue to
progress northward across an unstable environment. Surface
temperatures in the 80-90F range amid 70+ F dewpoints are
contributing to 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE across the southeast. In addition,
modestly stronger mid-level flow across far eastern AL into GA is
fostering 30 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, slightly better
potential for storm organization may be in eastern AL into GA, where
tree damage and up to 50 mph winds have recently been reported.
Damaging gusts should remain the primary threat through the
remainder of the afternoon.

..Squitieri.. 05/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32839008 33428975 33948890 33668600 32688328 32448321
            31768322 31388359 31168402 31178466 31648607 32158698
            32348801 32468868 32839008 

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