SPC Mesoscale Discussion
SPC MD 2289
MD 2289 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WESTERN NY...EXTREME NORTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST OH
Mesoscale Discussion 2289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Areas affected...Western NY...Extreme Northwest PA...Far Northeast OH Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 280716Z - 281115Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall, with rates over 2" per hour, are possible across the Tug Hill Plateau over the next several hours. Moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall is also anticipated farther south in the immediate lee of Lake Erie. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery continues to show a loosely organized band of heavy snowfall extending from eastern portions of Lake Ontario eastward through Oswego, southern Jefferson, and Lewis Counties. Overall organization of this band is expected to improve over the next several hours as broad westerly flow across the lake persists, and local convergence increases due to strengthening and veering of the winds south of the lake. Some strengthening is possible with the winds over the lake as well as the more west-northwesterly winds north of the lake. Snowfall rates from 1" to 2" per hour will continue for the next several hours, likely maximizing in the 08Z-10Z time frame, when rates of 2" per hour are most likely. Farther south, a shorter lake fetch is contributing to a broad areas of moderate snowfall in the lee of Lake Erie. Less low-level convergence and weaker band organization should keep snowfall rates a bit lower here than areas farther north, with rates generally expected to maximize around 1" per hour. ..Mosier.. 11/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE... LAT...LON 43587694 43987619 44157546 43557530 42217781 41548055 41388156 41968137 42697907 43587694Read more