Tropical Weather


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031746
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical 
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean just east 
of the Azores Islands.

Western Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in 
association with a low pressure system over the south-central 
Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to become a tropical 
depression during the next day or two as it moves generally 
northward toward Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba. Interests in 
those locations should monitor the progress of this system as 
tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or 
tonight. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible 
across Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba during the next few days. An 
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this 
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Near the Southeastern Bahamas:
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the southeastern Bahamas 
and adjacent waters. Slow development of this system is possible 
during the next day or so while it moves westward toward Cuba and 
the Bahamas. This system is expected to be absorbed into the low 
pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by late Monday, ending 
its chances of development. Regardless of formation, locally heavy 
rains are possible during the next couple of days across the Greater 
Antilles and the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of disturbed weather is expected to develop near the 
northern Leeward Islands around the middle of the week.  Some slow 
development of this system is possible after that time as it moves 
generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Subtropical Storm Patty (AT2/AL172024)

...PATTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON...
 As of 9:00 PM GMT Sun Nov 3
 the center of Patty was located near 37.3, -22.3
 with movement E at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 990 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Subtropical Storm Patty Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 032031
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024
 
...PATTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 22.3W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 22.3 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h) and an eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is
forecast to become a post-tropical low by early Monday.
 
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the
center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) across the Azores through
early Monday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 032031
TCMAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172024
2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N  22.3W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  95 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  50SE  70SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 300SE 480SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N  22.3W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N  23.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.7N  19.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.9N  14.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.2N  11.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 41.2N   8.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N  22.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 032032
TCDAT2
 
Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024
 
After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, 
thunderstorms have reformed near the center of Patty.  Therefore, 
Patty will hold its subtropical storm designation for now.  The 
initial intensity is held at 40 kt in deference to the earlier 
scatterometer data.  However, strong vertical wind shear, dry 
mid-latitude air, and cool sea surface temperatures should weaken 
Patty during the next couple of days.  No changes have been made to 
the latest NHC intensity forecast. 

The storm is moving eastward at 15 kt and is forecast to move 
eastward to east-northeastward for the next couple of days.  Patty 
is still expected to open into a trough near or over western Europe, 
and only minor adjustments have been made to the official track 
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 37.3N  22.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 37.7N  19.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  04/1800Z 38.9N  14.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 40.2N  11.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 41.2N   8.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Subtropical Storm Patty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 032031
PWSAT2
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172024               
2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI

Subtropical Storm Patty Graphics

Subtropical Storm Patty 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 20:33:12 GMT

Subtropical Storm Patty 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 21:22:50 GMT

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (AT3/AL182024)

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL  STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
 As of 4:00 PM EST Sun Nov 3
 the center of Eighteen was located near 13.0, -77.1
 with movement NE at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 032054
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
400 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024
 
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL 
STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 77.1W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch 
for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for 
the island of Jamaica.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 
24-36 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this 
system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 
products issued by your national meteorological 
service.  
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
13.0 North, longitude 77.1 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north and then 
northwest is expected over the next few days. On the forecast 
track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica by late Monday 
and near or over the Cayman Islands Tuesday and Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
This system is expected to become a tropical depression tonight and 
steady strengthening is forecast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air 
Force Hurricane Hurricane is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands on 
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late 
Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean 
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and southern Cuba 
through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally 
up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of 
Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of 
the Southeast United States mid to late week. 

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on 
Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. 
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much 
of the western Caribbean during the next few days.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 032052
TCMAT3
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  77.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  77.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  77.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.3N  77.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N  77.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.7N  78.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.6N  80.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N  82.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.3N  84.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.4N  86.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.9N  88.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N  77.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 032054
TCDAT3
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
400 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024
 
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the 
disturbance over the south-central Caribbean Sea and their data 
indicates that the system has developed a closed center. However, 
deep convection is not quite organized enough to designate the 
system a tropical depression at this time. Given the potential for 
development and impacts to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the 
next day or two, advisories are being issued on Potential Tropical 
Cyclone Eighteen.
 
The initial motion is northeastward at 6 kt, but this is uncertain 
given that the system has only recently closed off. A turn to the 
north and then northwest is expected over the next couple of days as 
a mid-level ridge builds across the southwestern Atlantic and the 
eastern Caribbean. This motion should take the disturbance near 
Jamaica by late Monday and near or over the Cayman Islands and Cuba 
on Tuesday and Wednesday. The models are in relatively good 
agreement during that time period, and the official track forecast 
lies near the various consensus models. Once the system reaches the 
Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week, the model solutions 
diverge due to differences in the predicted steering patterns and 
vertical depth of the system by that time. Therefore, the NHC track 
forecast during that time period is of notably lower confidence.
 
The environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening 
during the next few days, and it seems likely that the system will 
become a tropical storm before it reaches Jamaica and a hurricane 
before it reaches Cuba. However, later in the week, southwesterly 
vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should end the 
strengthening process and likely induce some weakening once the 
system reaches the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane regional models are 
very aggressive, however, their intensity predictions appear 
overdone, at least in the short term. The NHC intensity forecast is 
closer to the statistical-dynamical models DSHP and LGEM and near 
the IVCN consensus aid.  
 
 
Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm Monday and 
pass near Jamaica on Monday night and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm 
Warning is now in effect. The system is forecast to become a 
hurricane by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts 
from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and 
portions of Cuba. 

2. Interests in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system 
as tropical storm watches could be required for portions of the 
Florida Keys tonight or early Monday.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a 
tropical storm later this week, but given uncertainties in the 
long-range forecast, it is too soon to determine what, if any, 
impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly 
monitor updates to the forecast.

4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the 
western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the southern and western 
portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over 
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy 
rainfall could then spread northward into Florida and adjacent 
areas of the Southeast United States during the middle to late 
portions of the week.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 13.0N  77.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  04/0600Z 14.3N  77.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  04/1800Z 16.0N  77.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 17.7N  78.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 19.6N  80.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 21.5N  82.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 23.3N  84.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 25.4N  86.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 26.9N  88.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 032053
PWSAT3
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN                                 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024               
2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS      
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   3(21)   1(22)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  25(26)   3(29)   1(30)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   3(15)   1(16)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   2(15)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   6(17)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   9(22)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
HOUMA LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  36(38)   6(44)   X(44)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   2(16)   1(17)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  30(31)   2(33)   X(33)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  57(66)   1(67)   X(67)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  29(30)   X(30)   1(31)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  29(45)   X(45)   1(46)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  32(34)  14(48)   X(48)   1(49)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)   X(19)   X(19)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   2( 2)  32(34)  12(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   3( 3)  15(18)   2(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Graphics

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 20:56:13 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 21:28:45 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031747
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Sun Nov 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane, located over the western portion of the 
eastern Pacific basin. 

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
An area of low pressure located well to the south of the southern 
tip of Baja California is producing some disorganized shower and 
thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions appear marginally 
conducive for some additional development of this slow-moving 
system, and a tropical depression could form over the next couple of 
days.  The low is expected to begin an eastward drift in a few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane (EP3/EP132024)

...LANE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
 As of 7:00 AM PST Sun Nov 3
 the center of Lane was located near 11.1, -132.0
 with movement W at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 700 AM PST Sun Nov 03 2024  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 031448
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
700 AM PST Sun Nov 03 2024
 
...LANE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 132.0W
ABOUT 1670 MI...2685 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane
was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 132.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 
km/h), and a slightly south of westward motion is expected for the 
next day or two.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is expected to 
dissipate within the next couple of days or sooner.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 031448
TCMEP3
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024
1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 132.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 132.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 131.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 11.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.9N 134.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.7N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 132.0W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 700 AM PST Sun Nov 03 2024  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 031449
TCDEP3
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
700 AM PST Sun Nov 03 2024
 
Lane has degenerated into a remnant low.  The exposed low-level 
circulation is well separated from deep convection associated with 
the monsoon trough based on geostationary satellite imagery.  The 
low is expected to move just south of west for the next couple of 
days in the near surface flow.  Lane should open into a trough by 
mid-week, however this could occur sooner.  This is the last NHC 
advisory on this system.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 11.1N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  04/0000Z 11.0N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/1200Z 10.9N 134.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 10.7N 135.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 031449
PWSEP3
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024               
1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 14:51:23 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 15:28:34 GMT