Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301128
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 30 May 2025 11:30:53 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301129
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri May 30 2025
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alvin, located a few hundred miles offshore the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
offshore of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Summary for Tropical Storm Alvin (EP1/EP012025)
...ALVIN SENDING LARGE SWELL TOWARDS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS... As of 2:00 AM MST Fri May 30 the center of Alvin was located near 16.6, -108.3 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 7
Issued at 200 AM MST Fri May 30 2025 463 WTPZ31 KNHC 300835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 AM MST Fri May 30 2025 ...ALVIN SENDING LARGE SWELL TOWARDS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 108.3W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 108.3 West. Alvin is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected to later today and this motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Alvin is expected to degenerate to a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coasts of west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 300835 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 0900 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 108.3W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 108.3W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 108.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.5N 109.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.1N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.8N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.6N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 200 AM MST Fri May 30 2025 637 WTPZ41 KNHC 300839 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 AM MST Fri May 30 2025 Alvin is unraveling quickly. Overnight satellite surface wind data placed the center of the storm near the southern edge of the cold cloud tops. The vertical wind shear analysis from CIMSS-UW estimates that Alvin has entered a region of strong shear. The initial intensity is lowered slightly to 45 kt, based on the recent scatterometer observations. The storm is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. Alvin should gradually turn toward the north over the next day or so as it moves towards a weakness in the ridge. Only minor adjustments have been made to the official forecast, which lies near the various consensus aids. The increasingly hostile environmental conditions are expected to weaken Alvin further over the next 24 h. Strong vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures should cause the storm to become a post-tropical remnant low by this weekend. No significant changes were made to the latest NHC intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 16.6N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 17.9N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 19.5N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 21.1N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0600Z 22.8N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1800Z 24.6N 109.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 297
FOPZ11 KNHC 300836
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
0900 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 1 14(15) 3(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 08:40:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 09:21:48 GMT