Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 261722
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Melissa, located a little more than 100 miles south of Jamaica.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Summary for Hurricane Melissa (AT3/AL132025)
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH MIDWEEK... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 the center of Melissa was located near 16.4, -76.9 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
Hurricane Melissa Public Advisory Number 21a
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261736 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH MIDWEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 76.9W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Additional watches and warnings could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 76.9 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is forecast over the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica, with hurricane conditions expected to begin by Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti today. The potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti have diminished for today, but there is still a possibility of hurricane conditions occurring there on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday into Wednesday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with local amounts to 20 inches, is expected by Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding. Over the Turks and Caicos, total rainfall of 1 to 4 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Hurricane Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 21
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025 000 WTNT23 KNHC 261454 TCMAT3 HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 76.6W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 76.6W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 76.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.1W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.8W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.0W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.7W...NEAR SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 55SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.2N 76.6W...NORTH OF JAMAICA MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 65NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.9N 75.1W...NEAR ATLANTIC E CUBA COAST MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 65NE 70SE 50SW 45NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 25.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 85SE 65SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 140SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 76.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 21
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 261459 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 After rapidly intensifying over the past day or so, NOAA-P3 aircraft data indicates that Melissa's intensity has leveled off this morning. Melissa remains a very formidable hurricane on satellite imagery, with a clearing eye quite evident on morning visible imagery, and the eye temperature has warmed to +15-20C. Meanwhile the eyewall convection continues to remain robust with cloud tops as low as -75 to -80C encircling the core. With that said, the eye presentation from the Kingston, Jamaica radar is not as pristine, with the eyewall occasionally open on the east side, and some evidence of concentric bands forming off and on. Zooming out a bit, there still remains some evidence of light to moderate westerly shear undercutting the expanding storm outflow, and Melissa’s primarily rainbands are distributed mostly on the eastern side of the circulation. NOAA-P3 aircraft data this morning had a peak 700- mb flight level wind of 120 kt, and Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) wind retrievals were up to 129 kt at 0.5 km, and 129 kt in the 500 m average of a dropsonde launched in the north eyewall. While this data would support a somewhat lower intensity, the subjective and objective satellite based intensity estimates are mostly higher, ranging from 115 to 140 kt. The initial intensity will be held at 120 kt, on the lower end of those estimates, and this value could be a little generous based on the aircraft data. The major hurricane is moving westward this morning, from aircraft fixes estimated at 270/3 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24-36 h as a narrow mid-level ridge to the north of Melissa imparts the majority of the steering. Thereafter, a short-wave trough moving into the southeastern United States is expected to erode this ridge, allowing Melissa to turn sharply to the northeast, with gradual acceleration. On the forecast track, Melissa's core is expected to be near the Jamaica coastline by Tuesday morning, moving across the island and then approaching and moving over eastern Cuba by Tuesday night. While the track guidance has become tightly clustered over the first 24-48 hours, the along-track spread starts to increase significantly after that time period, with Google DeepMind ensemble solutions on Wednesday morning ranging from between Jamaica and eastern Cuba in the Caribbean Sea, over eastern Cuba, or in the Southwestern Atlantic near the Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Cacaos Islands. The latest NHC track forecast was nudged just a little westward of the prior track, once again blending the reliable track aids HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). It is unclear if the current pause in Melissa's intensification is temporary. While there have not been obvious indications of a secondary eyewall formation yet, there are some concentric reflectivity bands appearing on both Jamaica and NOAA-P3 TDR data occasionally, though the inner eyewall remains strong. Some of the guidance this morning has actually increased from yesterday at this time, and notably both the HAFS-A/B explicitly forecast a Category 5 hurricane shortly before they show landfall in Jamaica. The latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a peak intensity of 140 kt. However, inner-core fluctuations like eyewall replacement cycles could occur at any time. Regardless, Melissa is forecast to reach Jamaica as an upper-end category 4 hurricane, which will only exacerbate any damages caused by heavy rainfall and flooding over the next 2 days. Melissa will likely weaken some as it traverses over the higher terrain of Jamaica, but it is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it subsequently moves over eastern Cuba in 60-72 hours. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear should cause gradual weakening, but Melissa could still be near hurricane intensity when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda in about 5 days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the high end of the intensity guidance, but not far off the GDMI, and HAFS-A/B intensity aids. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall today and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning. 2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday. 3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the country. 4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.4N 76.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 19.2N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 20.9N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 25.5N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Hurricane Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025 000
FONT13 KNHC 261456
PWSAT3
HURRICANE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 16(38) X(38)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 34(50) X(50)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 45(76) 1(77)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 35(42) X(42)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 32(46) 1(47)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 17(22) 1(23) X(23)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 57(65) 3(68) X(68)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 3(35) X(35)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11)
MONTEGO BAY 34 7 34(41) 28(69) 25(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98)
MONTEGO BAY 50 1 2( 3) 11(14) 41(55) 16(71) 1(72) X(72)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 19(51) X(51) X(51)
KINGSTON 34 79 10(89) 3(92) 4(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98)
KINGSTON 50 2 4( 6) 10(16) 31(47) 17(64) X(64) X(64)
KINGSTON 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 19(24) 16(40) X(40) X(40)
LES CAYES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 17(23) 1(24) X(24)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 21(24) 4(28) X(28)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 1(21)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Melissa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 26 Oct 2025 17:36:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Oct 2025 15:21:53 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261721
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sonia, located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Summary for Tropical Storm Sonia (EP3/EP182025)
...SONIA HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 the center of Sonia was located near 13.7, -119.9 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Sonia Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 261446 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...SONIA HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 119.9W ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 119.9 West. Sonia is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, and that motion should continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in strength are possible over the next day or so, before a weakening trend is forecast to begin. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Sonia Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 261446 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025 1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 119.9W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 119.9W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.3N 121.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.6N 122.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.9N 123.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.0N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.1N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 14.2N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 119.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Sonia Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261446 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Deep convection returned over the low-level center overnight, but over the last several hours satellite imagery shows the convective structure has become a little more broken. The low-level center is likely situated on the southern end of the convective shield due to southerly wind shear. The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates were both data-T 3.0 from both TAFB and SAB. The objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 35 to 50 kt. Using these estimates, the initial intensity will be held at 45 kt for this advisory. Sonia is moving slowly westward at an estimated motion of 280/03 kt. The system seems to be gradually turning towards the west-northwest towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge, with a continued slow forward motion the next day or so. As the system begins to weaken and become a more shallow vortex, the system should turn back toward the west within the low-level wind flow at a sightly faster forward speed. The latest NHC forecast is slightly near the previous and lies between the corrected consensus HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions. The storm will continue to deal with moderate wind shear, but will remain over warm sea surface temperatures for another day or so. Thus, little change in intensity is forecast, with the potential for some slight strengthening today. Beyond the 24-36 h time period, a weakening trend is forecast due to an increase in wind shear, and sea surface temperatures cooling along the forecast track. Water vapor satellite imagery shows abundant dry air to the west of the system and mid-level RH values drop into the 40 percent range in 2 to 3 days. The combination of dry air and shear should cause the system to gradually lose convection, and become a remnant low by 60 hours. This forecast is in good agreement with the global model simulated IR satellite solutions, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends, with the remnant low dissipating by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 13.7N 119.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 14.3N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 14.6N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 14.9N 123.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 15.0N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 15.1N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z 14.2N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Sonia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025 000
FOPZ13 KNHC 261446
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM SONIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 120W 34 16 10(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21)
15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Sonia Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 26 Oct 2025 14:50:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Oct 2025 15:26:59 GMT