Tropical Weather



Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070538
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 07 Jul 2022 06:09:55 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070552
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Bonnie, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 
several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico have 
become a little better organized since yesterday.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form well south or southwest 
of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend while the 
disturbance moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Hurricane Bonnie (EP4/EP042022)

...BONNIE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...
 As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 6
 the center of Bonnie was located near 16.9, -111.3
 with movement WNW at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 977 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Bonnie Public Advisory Number 38

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 070235
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022
 
...BONNIE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 111.3W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 111.3 West.  Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected 
over the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Advisory Number 38

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2022  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 070234
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042022
0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 111.3W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 111.3W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 113.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.1N 116.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.7N 119.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.3N 122.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.7N 126.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.0N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.2N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 111.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Discussion Number 38

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 070237
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022
 
Over the past several hours, Bonnie appears to have succumbed to 
the effects of northwesterly wind shear.  Satellite infrared 
imagery shows no distinguishable eye feature and cold cloud tops of 
-80C or less are only present in southeastern quadrant of the storm. 
The initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt because of the 
recent reduction of inner core convective organization.  This is 
between the final T and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a dry air mass ahead of Bonnie. 
This atmospheric environment, and decreasing sea surface 
temperatures, are expected to continue weakening the storm 
gradually.  Within about a day, the tropical cyclone should cross 
into ocean temperatures of less than 26 C which will likely quicken 
the rate of weakening.  Bonnie is forecast to become post-tropical 
by 60 hours, but simulated satellite infrared imagery from the GFS 
and ECMWF suggest this transition could occur even sooner.  The 
official intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and 
lies on the lower end of the intensity guidance.

The hurricane continues to move to the west-northwest at about 12 
kt on the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north.  This 
synoptic feature is predicted to steer Bonnie west-northwestward 
for the next couple of days until its circulation weakens and the 
shallower vortex follows the faster, westward trade wind flow.  The 
updated NHC track forecast is slightly north of the one from 
the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model 
guidance.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 16.9N 111.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 17.4N 113.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 18.1N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 18.7N 119.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 19.3N 122.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 19.7N 126.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  10/0000Z 20.0N 130.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0000Z 20.2N 136.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

Hurricane Bonnie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2022                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 070235
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042022               
0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  8  84(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
ISLA CLARION   50  1  40(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
ISLA CLARION   64  X  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
15N 115W       34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 115W       34  3   9(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
15N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 120W       34  X   3( 3)  27(30)  15(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  25(33)   X(33)   X(33)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Hurricane Bonnie Graphics

Hurricane Bonnie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Jul 2022 02:38:02 GMT

Hurricane Bonnie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Jul 2022 03:22:33 GMT