Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
333
ABNT20 KNHC 020508
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 02 Aug 2025 06:20:07 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
578
ABPZ20 KNHC 020503
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gil, located well west-southwest of the southern Baja California
peninsula. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has issued its final
advisory on Tropical Depression Iona, which is now located west of
the International Date Line, well west-southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands. Future advisories will be issued by RSMC Tokyo, Japan. For
U.S. interests, refer to Department of Defense warnings issued by
the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.
Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development, and a tropical depression could form late next week as
the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Summary for Hurricane Gil (EP2/EP072025)
...GIL NOW A HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Aug 01 the center of Gil was located near 16.5, -125.1 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Gil Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 342 WTPZ32 KNHC 020247 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gil Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 ...GIL NOW A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 125.1W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gil was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 125.1 West. Gil is moving toward quickly the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A slower motion toward the west is forecast by Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible overnight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday, and Gil is likely to become post-tropical as early as Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Gil Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 020247 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.1W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 50SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....300NE 270SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.1W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 124.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.2N 134.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.1N 136.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.8N 139.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.2N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.8N 147.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 125.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Gil Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 020248 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gil Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 Gil appears to have rid itself of the intrusion of dry air it had been dealing with earlier in the day. The center is now embedded within a Central Dense Overcast, and as a result, subjective satellite estimates are a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB. Several objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are at that level or higher, so Gil is therefore upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Gil is moving faster toward the west-northwest, now 295/17 kt. Strong mid-level ridging is expected to persist to the north of the hurricane, which should cause Gil to continue moving quickly toward the west-northwest through much of the weekend. A slower forward motion with a turn toward the west is forecast by Monday as the weakening cyclone is steered by lower-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is just a touch south of the previous prediction, leaning toward the HCCA and AI models. Gil only has a small window for continued strengthening since cooler sea surface temperatures lie ahead. The NHC intensity forecast allows for a bit more strengthening through 12 hours, but then fast weakening is expected thereafter due to the cold waters. In fact, model-simulated satellite images indicate Gil will likely lose its deep convection in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast shows it becoming post-tropical at that time. Because of Gil's fast motion, the decrease in its winds are likely to lag the loss of convection, and the 45-kt forecast intensity at 48 hours is higher than is typical for when an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone becomes post-tropical. Gil is expected to open up into a trough by day 5, which is supported by most of the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.5N 125.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 20.2N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 21.1N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 04/1200Z 21.8N 139.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/0000Z 22.2N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 22.8N 147.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Gil Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 232
FOPZ12 KNHC 020247
PWSEP2
HURRICANE GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 125W 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 125W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 130W 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 130W 34 5 54(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
20N 130W 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
20N 135W 34 X 5( 5) 33(38) 17(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Gil Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 02:49:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 03:26:26 GMT