Tropical Weather
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 070538 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Beven
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 07 Jul 2022 06:09:55 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 070552 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Bonnie, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Offshore of Southern Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico have become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend while the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Summary for Hurricane Bonnie (EP4/EP042022)
...BONNIE SLIGHTLY WEAKER... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 the center of Bonnie was located near 16.9, -111.3 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane Bonnie Public Advisory Number 38
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070235 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 ...BONNIE SLIGHTLY WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 111.3W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 111.3 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Advisory Number 38
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070234 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 111.3W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 111.3W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 113.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.1N 116.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.7N 119.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.3N 122.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.7N 126.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.0N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.2N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI
Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Discussion Number 38
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070237 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 Over the past several hours, Bonnie appears to have succumbed to the effects of northwesterly wind shear. Satellite infrared imagery shows no distinguishable eye feature and cold cloud tops of -80C or less are only present in southeastern quadrant of the storm. The initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt because of the recent reduction of inner core convective organization. This is between the final T and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a dry air mass ahead of Bonnie. This atmospheric environment, and decreasing sea surface temperatures, are expected to continue weakening the storm gradually. Within about a day, the tropical cyclone should cross into ocean temperatures of less than 26 C which will likely quicken the rate of weakening. Bonnie is forecast to become post-tropical by 60 hours, but simulated satellite infrared imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest this transition could occur even sooner. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and lies on the lower end of the intensity guidance. The hurricane continues to move to the west-northwest at about 12 kt on the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north. This synoptic feature is predicted to steer Bonnie west-northwestward for the next couple of days until its circulation weakens and the shallower vortex follows the faster, westward trade wind flow. The updated NHC track forecast is slightly north of the one from the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.9N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 113.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 18.1N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 18.7N 119.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 19.3N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 19.7N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 10/0000Z 20.0N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 20.2N 136.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
Hurricane Bonnie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2022
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 070235
PWSEP4
HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 8 84(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
ISLA CLARION 50 1 40(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
ISLA CLARION 64 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
15N 115W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 115W 34 3 9(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 27(30) 15(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 25(33) X(33) X(33)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI
Hurricane Bonnie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Jul 2022 02:38:02 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Jul 2022 03:22:33 GMT