Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
576
ABNT20 KNHC 241139
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fernand, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.
East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands have increased since
yesterday. However, the wave does not appear to have a surface
circulation. This system could still become a tropical depression
during the next day or two while it moves quickly westward at about
20 to 25 mph, passing through the Windward and Leeward Islands
later today and early Monday. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely across portions of the
Windward and Leeward Islands today and Monday. The system is
expected to reach the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, where
conditions are forecast to become less favorable for additional
development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Summary for Tropical Storm Fernand (AT1/AL062025)
...FERNAND CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 24 the center of Fernand was located near 29.7, -60.7 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Fernand Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2025 000 WTNT31 KNHC 240834 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 500 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2025 ...FERNAND CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 60.7W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 60.7 West. Fernand is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, followed by a turn to the northeast. On the forecast track, Fernand should move well east of Bermuda and across the open waters of the subtropical North Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. A weakening trend is expected by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025 000 WTNT21 KNHC 240833 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 60.7W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 105SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 60.7W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 61.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.3N 60.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.6N 59.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.7N 57.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 38.2N 56.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 40.9N 53.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 44.3N 49.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 60.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2025 643 WTNT41 KNHC 240834 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 500 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2025 Convection associated with Fernand remains poorly organized this morning, with a cluster near and just west of the center and a very ragged outer band in the northern semicircle. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain in the 35-40 kt range, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. The initial motion is 015/13 kt. As mentioned previously, Fernand is being steered around the western edge of the subtropical ridge, which will cause the storm to move north-northeastward during the next day or two. The system will then turn more northeastward and accelerate within the mid-latitude westerly flow between the ridge and an approaching trough. While the model guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, the guidance envelop has shifted a little to the east since the previous advisory, Thus, the new forecast track is a little east of the previous track. Fernand should remain over warm sea surface temperatures and in a light shear environment for the next 36 h or so. However, mid-level dry air near the cyclone may slow the development. The intensity guidance has again trended downward, and the new forecast peak intensity of 50 kt is near the upper edge of the guidance. After 36 h, cooler water, increasing shear, and increased dry-air entrainment should cause weakening, and Fernand is now forecast to become post-tropical by 72 hr. The global models are in good agreement that the system should degenerate to a trough by 96 h, and the official forecast shows dissipation by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 29.7N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 31.3N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 33.6N 59.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 35.7N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 38.2N 56.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 40.9N 53.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 44.3N 49.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Fernand Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025 779
FONT11 KNHC 240834
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Fernand Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2025 08:37:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2025 09:22:22 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241132
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next few days while it moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well off the
coast of Mexico. This system is expected to move into less
conducive conditions to develop around the middle of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 24 Aug 2025 13:00:10 GMT