Tropical Weather


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 14 Jun 2025 16:12:54 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

715 
ABPZ20 KNHC 141148
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, has
formed just off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of the low, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while moving
westward or west-northwestward just offshore the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Storm Dalila (EP4/EP042025)

...DALILA'S OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 15:00 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 the center of Dalila was located near 16.5, -104.8 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 127 
WTPZ34 KNHC 141434
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
900 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025
 
...DALILA'S OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was 
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.8 West. Dalila is 
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual 
west-northwest to westward turn is expected later today into Sunday. 
On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to remain 
offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, with 
a weakening trend beginning on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected
across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero
through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches
near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
today.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 128 
WTPZ24 KNHC 141434
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042025
1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.8W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT.......200NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 300SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.8W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 104.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 106.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.2N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 251 
WTPZ44 KNHC 141434
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
900 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025
 
Dalila continues to show signs of strengthening, with deep 
convection bursting over the low-level center, and curved banding 
features near the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a fairly 
large range of satellite intensity estimates this morning from 45 to 
65 kt. Given the improving satellite presentation, the initial 
intensity is raised to 50 kt for this advisory. A scatterometer pass 
is scheduled over the system around 16Z, which may give a better 
estimate of surface winds. 
 
The storm is currently moving northwestward at an estimated 305/10 
kt. A mid-level ridge is building westward over northern Mexico, 
which should cause Dalila to gradually turn west-northwestward 
later today. As the system begins to weaken into a shallower vortex 
on Sunday, Dalila will turn more westward within the low-level wind 
flow. The latest NHC forecast is near the previous one, and lies 
near the latest simple and corrected consensus aids.
 
Dalila may be nearing peak intensity, with only about 6 to 12 h left 
within a favorable environment. Thus, the NHC forecast shows slight 
strengthening today, with a peak intensity of 55 kt. Along the 
forecast track, Dalila will move over much cooler SSTs tonight and 
begin to enter a drier, more stable airmass. This will lead to 
steady weakening, and eventually the system will struggle to produce 
convection. The NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one, 
however now shows the system becoming a remnant low in 48 h, 
although this could occur sooner. By day 4, models depict the 
remnant low dissipating into an open trough. 

KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy 
rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through 
Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are 
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.
 
2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 16.5N 104.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 17.3N 106.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 18.1N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 18.1N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/0000Z 18.2N 113.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1200Z 18.2N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 231 
FOPZ14 KNHC 141434
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042025               
1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 105W       34 16   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 15   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
MANZANILLO     34 39   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
L CARDENAS     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  2   2( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   2( 3)  10(13)   8(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics

Tropical Storm Dalila 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 14:35:47 GMT

Tropical Storm Dalila 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 15:22:29 GMT