Tropical Weather


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261722
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Melissa, located a little more than 100 miles south of Jamaica.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Summary for Hurricane Melissa (AT3/AL132025)

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH MIDWEEK... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 the center of Melissa was located near 16.4, -76.9 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Hurricane Melissa Public Advisory Number 21a

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 000
WTNT33 KNHC 261736
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
 
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING MAJOR 
HURRICANE MELISSA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Additional
watches and warnings could be required later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located 
by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.4 
North, longitude 76.9 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 5 
mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected today, followed by 
a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the 
forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over 
Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and 
across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional intensification is forecast over 
the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity.  Melissa 
is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in 
Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late 
Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 
946 mb (27.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica, with
hurricane conditions expected to begin by Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti today. The
potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti have
diminished for today, but there is still a possibility of hurricane
conditions occurring there on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday into
Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 15 to
30 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through
Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible.  Catastrophic
flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.
 
For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with local
amounts to 20 inches, is expected by Tuesday into Wednesday
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides.
 
Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.  Over the Turks and Caicos, total rainfall of 1 to 4
inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south
coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning.  Peak
storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of 
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the 
next several days.  These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Hurricane Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 21

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025 000
WTNT23 KNHC 261454
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132025
1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  76.6W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE  50SW  80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  76.6W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  76.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.4N  77.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.6N  77.8W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.9N  78.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N  77.7W...NEAR SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  55SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.2N  76.6W...NORTH OF JAMAICA
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  35SE  25SW  20NW.
50 KT... 65NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.9N  75.1W...NEAR ATLANTIC E CUBA COAST
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 65NE  70SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 25.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 32.0N  65.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  85SE  65SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 140SW  90NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N  76.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Hurricane Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 21

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 000
WTNT43 KNHC 261459
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

After rapidly intensifying over the past day or so, NOAA-P3 aircraft 
data indicates that Melissa's intensity has leveled off this 
morning. Melissa remains a very formidable hurricane on satellite 
imagery, with a clearing eye quite evident on morning visible 
imagery, and the eye temperature has warmed to +15-20C. Meanwhile 
the eyewall convection continues to remain robust with cloud tops as 
low as -75 to -80C encircling the core. With that said, the eye 
presentation from the Kingston, Jamaica radar is not as pristine, 
with the eyewall occasionally open on the east side, and some 
evidence of concentric bands forming off and on. Zooming out a bit, 
there still remains some evidence of light to moderate westerly 
shear undercutting the expanding storm outflow, and Melissa’s 
primarily rainbands are distributed mostly on the eastern side of 
the circulation. NOAA-P3 aircraft data this morning had a peak 700- 
mb flight level wind of 120 kt, and Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) wind 
retrievals were up to 129 kt at 0.5 km, and 129 kt in the 500 m 
average of a dropsonde launched in the north eyewall. While this 
data would support a somewhat lower intensity, the subjective and 
objective satellite based intensity estimates are mostly higher, 
ranging from 115 to 140 kt. The initial intensity will be held at 
120 kt, on the lower end of those estimates, and this value could be 
a little generous based on the aircraft data.

The major hurricane is moving westward this morning, from aircraft 
fixes estimated at 270/3 kt. This motion is expected to continue for 
the next 24-36 h as a narrow mid-level ridge to the north of Melissa 
imparts the majority of the steering. Thereafter, a short-wave 
trough moving into the southeastern United States is expected to 
erode this ridge, allowing Melissa to turn sharply to the northeast, 
with gradual acceleration. On the forecast track,  Melissa's core 
is expected to be near the Jamaica coastline by Tuesday morning, 
moving across the island and then approaching and moving over 
eastern Cuba by Tuesday night. While the track guidance has become 
tightly clustered over the first 24-48 hours, the along-track spread 
starts to increase significantly after that time period, with Google 
DeepMind ensemble solutions on Wednesday morning ranging from 
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba in the Caribbean Sea, over eastern 
Cuba, or in the Southwestern Atlantic near the Southeastern Bahamas 
and Turks and Cacaos Islands. The latest NHC track forecast was 
nudged just a little westward of the prior track, once again 
blending the reliable track aids HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach 
(HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). 

It is unclear if the current pause in Melissa's intensification is 
temporary. While there have not been obvious indications of a 
secondary eyewall formation yet, there are some concentric 
reflectivity bands appearing on both Jamaica and NOAA-P3 TDR data 
occasionally, though the inner eyewall remains strong. Some of the 
guidance this morning has actually increased from yesterday at this 
time, and notably both the HAFS-A/B explicitly forecast a Category 5 
hurricane shortly before they show landfall in Jamaica. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a peak intensity of 140 
kt. However, inner-core fluctuations like eyewall replacement cycles 
could occur at any time. Regardless, Melissa is forecast to reach 
Jamaica as an upper-end category 4 hurricane, which will only 
exacerbate any damages caused by heavy rainfall and flooding over 
the next 2 days. Melissa will likely weaken some as it traverses 
over the higher terrain of Jamaica, but it is still forecast to be a 
major hurricane when it subsequently moves over eastern Cuba in 
60-72 hours. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear should 
cause gradual weakening, but Melissa could still be near hurricane 
intensity when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda in about 5 
days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the high end of the 
intensity guidance, but not far off the GDMI, and HAFS-A/B intensity 
aids. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Jamaica:  Seek shelter now.  Damaging winds and heavy rainfall 
today and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash 
flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating 
winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning.  Extensive 
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication 
outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening 
storm surge is likely along portions of the southern coast Monday 
night and Tuesday morning.
 
2. Haiti:  Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and 
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek, 
likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of 
communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the 
Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western 
Haiti on Tuesday.
 
3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce 
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern 
portions of the country.
 
4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: 
Monitor Melissa closely.  There is an increasing risk of a 
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday 
and Wednesday.  In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash 
flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in 
effect for portions of eastern Cuba.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 16.4N  76.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 16.4N  77.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 16.6N  77.8W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 16.9N  78.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 17.8N  77.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 19.2N  76.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 20.9N  75.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 25.5N  71.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  31/1200Z 32.0N  65.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Hurricane Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025 000
FONT13 KNHC 261456
PWSAT3
                                                                    
HURRICANE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132025               
1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  34(34)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)   1(14)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  16(38)   X(38)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   1(17)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  34(50)   X(50)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)   X(25)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   X(14)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)  45(76)   1(77)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  35(42)   X(42)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)   X(23)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  32(46)   1(47)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)  17(22)   1(23)   X(23)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)  57(65)   3(68)   X(68)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  31(32)   3(35)   X(35)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  7  34(41)  28(69)  25(94)   4(98)   X(98)   X(98)
MONTEGO BAY    50  1   2( 3)  11(14)  41(55)  16(71)   1(72)   X(72)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   3( 3)  29(32)  19(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
KINGSTON       34 79  10(89)   3(92)   4(96)   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)
KINGSTON       50  2   4( 6)  10(16)  31(47)  17(64)   X(64)   X(64)
KINGSTON       64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  19(24)  16(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
LES CAYES      34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)  17(23)   1(24)   X(24)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)  21(24)   4(28)   X(28)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  11(20)   1(21)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Hurricane Melissa Graphics

Hurricane Melissa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 26 Oct 2025 17:36:45 GMT

Hurricane Melissa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Oct 2025 15:21:53 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sonia, located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Summary for Tropical Storm Sonia (EP3/EP182025)

...SONIA HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 the center of Sonia was located near 13.7, -119.9 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Sonia Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 000
WTPZ33 KNHC 261446
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025
 
...SONIA HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 119.9W
ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 119.9 West. Sonia is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, and that motion should
continue through Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight fluctuations in strength are possible over the next day or 
so, before a weakening trend is forecast to begin.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Storm Sonia Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025 000
WTPZ23 KNHC 261446
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182025
1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 119.9W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 119.9W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 119.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.3N 121.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.6N 122.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.9N 123.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.0N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.1N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 14.2N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 119.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Storm Sonia Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 000
WTPZ43 KNHC 261446
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025
 
Deep convection returned over the low-level center overnight, but 
over the last several hours satellite imagery shows the convective 
structure has become a little more broken. The low-level center is 
likely situated on the southern end of the convective shield due to 
southerly wind shear. The latest subjective satellite intensity 
estimates were both data-T 3.0 from both TAFB and SAB. The objective 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 35 to 50 kt. Using 
these estimates, the initial intensity will be held at 45 kt for 
this advisory.

Sonia is moving slowly westward at an estimated motion of 280/03 kt. 
The system seems to be gradually turning towards the west-northwest 
towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge, with a continued slow 
forward motion the next day or so. As the system begins to weaken 
and become a more shallow vortex, the system should turn back toward 
the west within the low-level wind flow at a sightly faster forward 
speed. The latest NHC forecast is slightly near the previous and 
lies between the corrected consensus HCCA and Google DeepMind 
solutions.

The storm will continue to deal with moderate wind shear, but will 
remain over warm sea surface temperatures for another day or so. 
Thus, little change in intensity is forecast, with the potential for 
some slight strengthening today. Beyond the 24-36 h time period, a 
weakening trend is forecast due to an increase in wind shear, and 
sea surface temperatures cooling along the forecast track. Water 
vapor satellite imagery shows abundant dry air to the west of the 
system and mid-level RH values drop into the 40 percent range in 2 
to 3 days. The combination of dry air and shear should cause the 
system to gradually lose convection, and become a remnant low by 60 
hours. This forecast is in good agreement with the global model 
simulated IR satellite solutions, and the latest NHC intensity 
forecast follows these trends, with the remnant low dissipating by 
the end of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 13.7N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 14.3N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 14.6N 122.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 14.9N 123.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 15.0N 125.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1200Z 15.1N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1200Z 14.2N 130.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Storm Sonia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025 000
FOPZ13 KNHC 261446
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM SONIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182025               
1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34 16  10(26)   1(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
15N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)  12(20)   1(21)   X(21)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Storm Sonia Graphics

Tropical Storm Sonia 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 26 Oct 2025 14:50:49 GMT

Tropical Storm Sonia 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Oct 2025 15:26:59 GMT