Tropical Weather
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 021139 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development during the next several days. Therefore, a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves westward, then turns northwestward or northward toward the end of the week over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Central Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has increased over the past day or so. Some gradual development of the wave is possible during the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 02 Oct 2022 14:57:54 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 021139 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Oct 2 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Orlene, located about 100 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of gradual organization. Additional development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Summary for Hurricane Orlene (EP1/EP162022)
...ORLENE CONTINUES NORTHWARD... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE ISLAS MARIAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Oct 2 the center of Orlene was located near 19.6, -106.9 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Hurricane Orlene Public Advisory Number 16
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022 ...ORLENE CONTINUES NORTHWARD... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE ISLAS MARIAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 106.9W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas * The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 106.9 West. Orlene is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias tonight or Monday morning, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area later on Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Orlene is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected during the next day or so, however Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it passes near or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when it reaches southwestern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico late Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the tropical storm warning area today through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area today. RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico through Tuesday: * Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches. * Nayarit and Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of 10 inches. * Jalisco and Colima: 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches. These rainfall amounts will likely lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds. SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Orlene Forecast Advisory Number 16
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 021445 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAS ISLAS MARIAS * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.9W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.9W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.6N 106.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.7N 106.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.6N 106.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.3N 105.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.9N 105.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Orlene Forecast Discussion Number 16
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021446 TCDEP1 Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022 The satellite presentation of Orlene has degraded since early this morning. It appears that an increase in southwestern shear may have begun, as the eye has become cloud filled. Subjective satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB were T5.5 (102 kt), and objective estimates range from 112 to 120 kt. Based on the degraded satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been reduced to 110 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate the hurricane, and should provide additional information on the strength and size of the wind field early this afternoon. Orlene has likely peaked in intensity. Although the sea surface temperatures remain warm along the forecast track, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear during the next 24 to 36 hours is likely to cause the small hurricane to weaken. However, Orlene is forecast to pass near or over the Islas Marias as a strong hurricane late tonight or early Monday, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico has a hurricane by late Monday or Monday night. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and the low-level center should dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico in 60-72 hours. Orlene has continued to move just east of due north or 005/7 kt. The hurricane is being steered between a mid-level ridge to its east and a broad trough over northwestern Mexico. These steering currents should cause Orlene to bend north-northeastward later today and it should then continue on that general heading until landfall in southwestern Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast is slightly west of the previous advisory, and lies close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models (GFEX). This is a little to the right of the other simple and corrected consensus models. The GFS remains significantly farther right and faster than the remainder of the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning today. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday with tropical storm conditions beginning early Monday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of southwestern Mexico into Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.6N 106.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 20.6N 106.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 21.7N 106.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 22.6N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 23.3N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 23.9N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Orlene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 021446
PWSEP1
HURRICANE ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 68 30(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 8 69(77) 3(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 2 49(51) 2(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
MAZATLAN 34 1 29(30) 32(62) 7(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71)
MAZATLAN 50 X 4( 4) 13(17) 6(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
MAZATLAN 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN BLAS 34 2 35(37) 8(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
SAN BLAS 50 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SAN BLAS 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
P VALLARTA 34 8 9(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Orlene Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2022 14:47:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2022 14:47:39 GMT