Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152324
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 15 Nov 2019 23:46:45 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152341
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Fri Nov 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Raymond, located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located
several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has
become a little better organized this afternoon.  Some additional
gradual development of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Raymond are issued under
WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Raymond are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Storm Raymond (EP5/EP202019)

...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...
 As of 2:00 PM MST Fri Nov 15
 the center of Raymond was located near 14.7, -109.4
 with movement NNW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Raymond Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 152035
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 109.4W
ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 109.4 West. Raymond is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the north with a slightly faster forward speed is anticipated
on Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Raymond is
expected to be near the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula late Sunday or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some slight additional strengthening is
possible tonight, followed by weakening by early Sunday. Raymond is
predicted to degenerate into a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja
California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Mello

Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 152035
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202019
2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 109.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 110.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 109.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.1N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/MELLO

Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 152036
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

Raymond continues to move toward the north-northwest several hundred
miles south of the Baja California peninsula. ASCAT-B data at 1624
UTC showed that Raymond's circulation has become a little better
defined with maximum winds of 35-40 kt. The initial intensity has
been increased to 45 kt based on that data, assuming that the ASCAT
slightly under-sampled the strongest winds.

The tropical storm is in a moderate shear environment which will
likely limit its development potential. Most of the intensity
guidance indicates that some slight strengthening is possible today,
but a general weakening trend should begin by late Saturday. Raymond
is forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 h, but several of
the dynamical models now suggest that the cyclone will still have
tropical characteristics when it nears the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. That said, there
is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding Raymond's structure
when, or if, it reaches the coast of the peninsula. Regardless of
the cyclone's status, rainfall associated with Raymond
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula in a couple of days. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flooding.

Raymond should continue moving generally north-northwestward through
tonight. A turn to the north is forecast on Saturday as Raymond
moves between a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to
upper-level trough located off the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula. The track guidance has converged on top of the previous
NHC forecast track and virtually no change was made to the official
forecast, which lies between the corrected consensus aids HCCA and
FSSE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 14.7N 109.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 15.6N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 17.2N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 21.0N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 25.1N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Mello

Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019  

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 152035
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202019
2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  22(27)   X(27)   X(27)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   X(17)   X(17)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 110W       34 47   7(54)   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
15N 110W       50  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

20N 110W       34  1   5( 6)  22(28)  20(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  1  14(15)  24(39)   2(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/MELLO

Tropical Storm Raymond Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 20:37:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 21:24:19 GMT