Tropical Weather
Tropical Sea Temperatures
Current Atlantic Satellite Loop
Current Pacific Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 192313 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Humberto, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, and on Hurricane Jerry, located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. The wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and some development is possible while it approaches and moves across the Windward Islands this weekend. Upper-level winds appear less conducive for development once the wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean Sea just south of Hispaniola is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the east and northeast of its center of circulation. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward at about 5 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Greater Antilles during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the wave moves westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
Remnants of Imelda Public Advisory Number 10
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019
Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)
...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... ...LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Humberto was located near 38.5, -58.7 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 29
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 192032 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... ...LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.5N 58.7W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 58.7 West. Humberto is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). A slower north- northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to commence by Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. The hurricane is expected to slowly weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will continue along the coast of Bermuda during the next day or two, and these could continue to cause coastal flooding. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and much of the coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 29
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 192032 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 58.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT.......330NE 240SE 180SW 330NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 480SE 960SW 600NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 58.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 59.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 40.4N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 42.8N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 44.6N 51.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 200SE 180SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 45.6N 44.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 200SE 180SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 58.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 29
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 192033 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Humberto is almost a post-tropical cyclone. Satellite images show a well-defined cold and warm front, but they do not appear to be fully connected to the center of circulation yet. In addition, the cyclone is still producing an area of deep convection to the northwest of the exposed low-level center. ASCAT data from earlier today indicated that the wind field of Humberto is very large with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 330 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds extending out to 70 n mi from the center. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 90 kt for this advisory. The cyclone is anticipated to become fully extratropical soon, within the next 6 to 12 hours. Although weakening is forecast, Humberto is expected to be a large and powerful extratropical cyclone for a couple of days before it is absorbed by another extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the guidance of the GFS model, which typically handles extratropical lows better than the tropical cyclone intensity guidance. Humberto is moving northeastward at 21 kt. A slight turn to the left and a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next 12 to 24 hours as the cyclone rotates around the east and north sides of a mid- to upper-level low to its west. After that time, a faster east-northeast or east motion is expected when the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days. These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 38.5N 58.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 40.4N 57.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1800Z 42.8N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 44.6N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 45.6N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
000
FONT14 KNHC 192033
PWSAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 15(15) 17(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 17(17) 20(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 17(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SYDNEY NS 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SABLE ISLAND 34 43 8(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Humberto Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:35:23 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:24:55 GMT
Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
...JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Jerry was located near 17.5, -55.8 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 192041 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 55.8W ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Satellite and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so before weakening is anticipated by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 192040 TCMAT5 HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBUDA * ANGUILLA * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 55.8W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 55.8W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 55.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 57.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 60.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.7N 63.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 65.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.9N 68.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 55.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 192043 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Jerry is a compact hurricane on satellite imagery with the central dense overcast becoming more symmetric during the past few hours. Before the Air Force plane departed, the crew recorded 700-mb flight-level winds of 97 kt and SFMR winds of about 70 kt, suggesting maximum winds of about 75 kt. Since that time, an eye feature has been noted on the last-light visible images, indicating that the earlier intensification has probably continued. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, and the next aircraft is scheduled to investigate Jerry around 0000 UTC to obtain a better estimate. The hurricane still has some time to strengthen before northwesterly shear increases by tomorrow morning. The shear increase will also probably allow some environmental dry air to be entrained into the central core and help weaken the cyclone. Thus weakening is anticipated by late tomorrow continuing into Saturday. Some re-strengthening is possible early next week as Jerry could find a lower shear region due to a mid-latitude trough interaction. The new NHC wind speed prediction has not changed too much, but is a little higher at longer range to reflect the above possibility. The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Jerry should continue to steer the hurricane at about the same direction and speed during the next day or two. The models have generally trended a bit to the north on this cycle at short range, and the official forecast follows suit. Thereafter, Jerry is forecast to move around the then-weakening ridge, turning to the northwest on Saturday, north-northwest on Sunday, and then northward and north- northeastward by Monday/Tuesday. The guidance has moved to the northeast at longer range on this cycle, possibly due to a stronger mid-latitude trough helping to weaken the ridge. The NHC forecast is adjusted to the northeast on this advisory, although is still on the western side of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.5N 55.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 18.4N 57.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.5N 60.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.7N 63.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.9N 65.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 24.9N 68.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 28.0N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
000
FONT15 KNHC 192041
PWSAT5
HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 44(49)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SABA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Jerry Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:42:38 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:32:06 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 191736 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Lorena, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico. Thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure located over the far southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific has increased since early this morning but remains disorganized. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two while the system moves little. Further development is unlikely after that time as the system interacts with and is possibly absorbed by Kiko. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of Mexico in a day or two. Only slow development, if any, is expected thereafter while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
...KIKO SMALLER AND WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Kiko was located near 16.3, -129.3 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 30
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 192045 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...KIKO SMALLER AND WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 129.3W ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 129.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwest motion is expected later today through Friday night. A west-southwestward motion is expected this weekend and into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow re-strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Kiko may regain hurricane strength within the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 30
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 192045 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.3W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 90SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.3W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 129.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 129.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 30
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192045 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 In terms of organization (and latitude) Kiko appears to have hit rock bottom and may now be on its way back up (and north). After the last advisory, Kiko briefly lost all of its central deep convection and consisted of a low-level swirl of clouds. Since then, convective activity has increased substantially and now a rain band appears to be trying to wrap around the northern semicircle of the tropical storm. ASCAT data around 1800 UTC showed max winds of only 35-40 kt, but given the improvement in the structure of Kiko since that time, the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 45 kt. Aside from small adjustments due to the lower initial intensity, little change was made to the intensity forecast. Most of the guidance calls for at least slight strengthening, and the dynamical models are still calling for Kiko to become a hurricane again. Dry air is still the primary limiting factor, and if Kiko can ever reform a well-defined inner-core, it could strengthen more quickly than forecast. By the end of the forecast period, Kiko could encounter an even drier environment and most of the guidance calls for weakening. Kiko is beginning to turn west-northwestward, and a turn toward the northwest is expected soon. The tropical storm is still forecast to move slowly westward on a wave-like path due to fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The track guidance is in particularly poor agreement on the speed Kiko will move west and by day 5 the ECMWF and GFS are 750 mi apart. Although only minor changes were made to the NHC forecast, which remains near the model consensus, confidence in the track forecast is much lower than usual. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.3N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 192045
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13)
20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12)
10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20(22) 17(39) 5(44)
15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14)
15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 10(14) 7(21) 3(24)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18)
15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17)
20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:51:54 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:45:12 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
...DISORGANIZED MARIO NOW HEADING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 17.1, -110.4 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 192053 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...DISORGANIZED MARIO NOW HEADING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 110.4W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 110.4 West. Mario is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected tonight and early Friday. A turn toward the north is anticipated by late Friday. After that time, Mario could turn northwestward, but confidence in the forecast is low. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 192052 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 110.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 192053 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 It's become clear since the issuance of the last advisory that the low level center of Mario is displaced well east of its convection. In fact, a good portion of the center has been exposed this afternoon. The intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of the most recent Dvorak Final-T and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB. A significant change to the track forecast was required based on the adjusted initial position of Mario, and the cyclone is now forecast to move much farther east during the next couple of days. The track models are still in extremely poor agreement on how much Mario and Lorena will interact over the next 2 days, and this is further complicated by the fact that Lorena will move over or very near the Baja California peninsula during that time. The NHC forecast still carries Mario as an independent system through 5 days, but confidence in the forecast remains low. For better or worse, the NHC forecast is close to TVCE at most of the forecast period, but is now just east of the consensus for the first 24 h, given current trends. Merger or not, shear from Lorena will likely affect Mario for the next couple of days. As long as Lorena continues to produce substantial convection, this shear should prevent Mario of significantly strengthening, though small short-term fluctuations are still possible. By the end of the forecast period, Mario is forecast to reach cooler waters and encounter dry air, and will likely become post-tropical. The new official intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus IVCN throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.1N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 192053
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 X 15(15) 51(66) 5(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 7( 8) 10(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 1(16)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:54:20 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:51:54 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ISLAS MARIAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 21.6, -107.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 192036 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ISLAS MARIAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 107.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe. The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of La Paz to San Evaristo, and along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of Santa Fe to Puerto Cortes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Fe to Puerto Cortes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 107.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed should continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula tonight, pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday, and move along the west coast of the peninsula Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A Mexican navy automated station on Isla Maria Madre island recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (73 km/h) and a wind gust of 65 mph (105 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico through this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula on Friday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend: Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 208 WTPZ25 KNHC 192035 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO CORTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO CORTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 107.0W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 107.0W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.4N 108.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.8N 109.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.5N 111.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.4N 112.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.0N 114.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 107.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 192037 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 The center and structure of Lorena was extremely difficult to determine this morning after the core of the tropical cyclone interacted with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. The aircraft that was scheduled to investigate Lorena had mechanical issues and was unable to complete its mission. Thankfully, a fortuitous GMI microwave overpass around 1800 UTC and more recent ASCAT data has provided some clarity on the location and structure of the cyclone. According to that data, the center is located just southwest of the Islas Marias, and the ASCAT revealed peak winds of 45-50 kt. Given the typical undersampling of the ASCAT for in small tropical cyclones, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt, which is between the peak scatterometer winds and the higher satellite estimates. Since the microwave data suggests that the inner core appears to be somewhat intact, some strengthening is expected while the cyclone moves over warm water and remains in a low shear environment during the next 24 hours or so. As a result, Lorena is forecast to be a hurricane when it pass near or over the southern Baja peninsula. After that time, interaction with land is likely to cause some decrease in wind speed. Lorena has been moving faster than expected, and the initial motion estimate is 315/11 kt. The cyclone should turn west-northwestward tonight as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its northeast and Tropical Storm Mario to the southwest. If Lorena remains separated from Mario (as shown by the latest ECMWF), a turn back toward the northwest is expected as the storm moves around the southwestern portion of the ridge. The new NHC track forecast lies between the HFIP corrected consensus model and the latest ECMWF. Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this evening. 3. Lorena is forecast to re-strengthen into a hurricane and bring hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula beginning on Friday. A Hurricane Warning has been issued, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 21.6N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 22.4N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 22.8N 109.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 23.5N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 24.4N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 27.0N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 192036
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17)
PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 23(29) 2(31) X(31)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 78(82) 10(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 40(40) 15(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 16(16) 7(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 62(64) 11(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 1 30(31) 9(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LA PAZ 34 X 8( 8) 23(31) 2(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 16(24) 1(25) X(25)
25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:39:08 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:58:23 GMT