Tropical Weather



Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

428 
ABNT20 KNHC 110533
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
downgraded Tropical Depression Fay, located inland over southeastern 
New York. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five 
days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Depression Fay (AT1/AL062020)

...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
 As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 11
 the center of Fay was located near 41.5, -74.0
 with movement N at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Fay Public Advisory Number 7A

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020  

121 
WTNT31 KNHC 110532
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020
 
...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.5N 74.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning from East Rockaway New York to Watch
Hill Rhode Island including most of Long Island and Long Island
Sound has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 41.5 North, longitude 74.0 West.  Fay is
moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A northward to
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
today and tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of Fay will
move across portions of eastern New York this morning, then
across western New England into southeastern Canada later today and
tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Continued weakening is expected today, and the
system is expected to become a post-tropical low later this morning
and dissipate on Sunday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is
1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Fay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with
isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern
Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey across southeast New York, and
portions of New England.  This rain may result in flash flooding and
urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest
amounts occur.  Widespread river flooding is not expected at this
time; however, rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor
flooding is possible.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Fay Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 110231
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062020
0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH AND WEST OF EAST
ROCKAWAY...NEW YORK.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST ROCKAWAY NEW YORK TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND
INCLUDING MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  74.2W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 180SE   0SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  74.2W AT 11/0300Z...INLAND
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N  74.3W...INLAND
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 43.6N  73.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 47.5N  71.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 51.1N  68.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N  74.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Depression Fay Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 110234
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
 
Satellite and radar data indicate that Fay is no longer generating 
organized deep convection as the center moves into northern New 
Jersey.  A combination of radar, aircraft, buoy, and ship data show 
that 30-35 kt winds are occurring over the water south of central 
and western long Island, and based on this the initial intensity is 
reduced to 35 kt.  The central pressure of 1001 mb is based on 
surface observations.

Barring the return of convection, Fay should continue to weaken and 
become post-tropical on Saturday.  After that, the system is 
expected to dissipate on Sunday as it merges with a frontal system 
over southeastern Canada.  The new intensity forecast has only 
minor tweaks from the previous forecast.

The initial motion is now northward or 005 degrees at 15 kt.  The 
track forecast philosophy is unchanged, as Fay will be steered 
generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation 
between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an 
approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes.  The 
storm is moving a little to the left of the previous forecast, so 
the new forecast is nudged to the left due mainly to the initial 
position and motion.  The new forecast lies close to the consensus 
models.
 
Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the
center of Fay, as the heaviest rain and strongest winds are now 
occurring well away from the center.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from eastern Pennsylvania, northeast New Jersey 
and across southeast New York, into portions of New England may 
result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor 
drainage.  Isolated minor flooding is possible; however, widespread 
river flooding is not expected.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected for several more hours 
over portions of coastal New York and Connecticut, including most 
of Long Island.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 41.0N  74.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  11/1200Z 43.6N  73.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  12/0000Z 47.5N  71.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/1200Z 51.1N  68.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 110234
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062020               
0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
AUGUSTA ME     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CONCORD NH     34 16   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
WORCESTER MA   34 21   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 35   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
BOSTON MA      34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
HARTFORD CT    34 42   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34 28   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
ALBANY NY      34 19   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34 33   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
ISLIP NY       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 25   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 12   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Depression Fay Graphics

Tropical Depression Fay 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 05:32:51 GMT

Tropical Depression Fay 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 03:24:54 GMT

Local Statement for Philadelphia, PA

Issued at  1113 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Local Statement for New York City, NY

Issued at  200 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110533
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A tropical wave located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a 
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to be generally favorable for the 
development of a tropical depression in a few days while the system 
moves quickly westward well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)

...CRISTINA HOLDING ON OVER COOLER WATERS...
 As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Jul 10
 the center of Cristina was located near 20.1, -116.8
 with movement W at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 993 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 18

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020  

682 
WTPZ35 KNHC 110316
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020
 
...CRISTINA HOLDING ON OVER COOLER WATERS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 116.8W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 279 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 116.8 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to 
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected 
into early next week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening is forecast to begin over the weekend and 
Cristina is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early 
next week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 18

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 110315
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020
0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.8W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 279 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.8W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 116.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.3N 124.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.7N 126.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 128.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 23.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.0N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 116.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 18

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020  

683 
WTPZ45 KNHC 110316
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020
 
Cristina's appearance suggests that the system has gotten better 
organized over relatively cold waters than it ever did over warmer 
waters to the south. The cyclone has a banding eye-like feature, and 
cold cloud tops associated with deep convection have recently come 
close to wrapping all the way around the cyclone's center. Although 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates at 00Z could justify calling 
Cristina a hurricane, the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON is 55 kt, and 
ASCAT data valid around 18Z had max winds of only 45 kt. The initial 
intensity is therefore held at 60 kt as a compromise of the various 
estimates.
 
Cristina is forecast to be over 24 deg C waters in about 12 h and it 
would be surprising if it strengthened overnight. That said, given 
its current satellite appearance and otherwise favorable surrounding 
environment, I can not rule out the possibility that Cristina could 
briefly become a hurricane during the next few hours. In general, 
the NHC intensity forecast has not been substantially changed, and 
Cristina is forecast to gradually weaken for the next few days. 
Various dynamical models indicate that the tropical storm will 
maintain some deep convection for another couple days, and then 
become a post-tropical remnant low early next week.
 
The tropical storm is forecast to continue moving steadily westward
to west-northwestward for the next two to three days, steered by a
mid-level ridge extending across most of the eastern North Pacific.
After that time, the shallow remnant low should continue generally
westward, steered by low-level easterly flow. The models are in
fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is on top of the
multi-model consensus near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 20.1N 116.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 21.3N 124.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 21.7N 126.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  13/1200Z 22.0N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 22.6N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0000Z 23.5N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0000Z 24.0N 141.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020                                              

705 
FOPZ15 KNHC 110316
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020               
0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 115W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
20N 120W       34 40  31(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
20N 120W       50  1  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
20N 120W       64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
25N 120W       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 125W       34  X   2( 2)  11(13)   9(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics

Tropical Storm Cristina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 03:17:52 GMT

Tropical Storm Cristina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 03:17:52 GMT