Tropical Weather



Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021139
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo 
Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable 
for some gradual development during the next several days.  
Therefore, a tropical depression is likely to form during the early 
or middle part of next week while the system moves westward, then 
turns northwestward or northward toward the end of the week over the 
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave 
located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has 
increased over the past day or so. Some gradual development of the 
wave is possible during the next few days while it moves generally 
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 02 Oct 2022 14:57:54 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021139
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Orlene, located about 100 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes, 
Mexico.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs 
of gradual organization. Additional development of this system is 
possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next 
couple of days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Summary for Hurricane Orlene (EP1/EP162022)

...ORLENE CONTINUES NORTHWARD... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE ISLAS MARIAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Oct 2
 the center of Orlene was located near 19.6, -106.9
 with movement N at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 953 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Hurricane Orlene Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022  

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 021446
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022
 
...ORLENE CONTINUES NORTHWARD...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN
THE ISLAS MARIAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 106.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 106.9 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later today.  On the forecast track, the
center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias tonight
or Monday morning, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the
warning area later on Monday or Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Orlene is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Weakening is expected during the next day or 
so, however Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it 
passes near or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when 
it reaches southwestern Mexico. 
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias tonight, 
with tropical storm conditions beginning today. Hurricane conditions 
are expected in the warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico 
late Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Monday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the
tropical storm warning area today through early Monday.  Hurricane
conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the hurricane watch area by tonight or early Monday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area today.
 
RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of Southwest Mexico through Tuesday:
 
* Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches.
* Nayarit and Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of 10
inches.
* Jalisco and Colima: 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches.
 
These rainfall amounts will likely lead to flash flooding, as well
as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in
regions of onshore winds.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Orlene Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022  

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 021445
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.9W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.9W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 106.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.6N 106.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.7N 106.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.6N 106.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.3N 105.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.9N 105.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Orlene Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022  

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 021446
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022
 
The satellite presentation of Orlene has degraded since early this 
morning.  It appears that an increase in southwestern shear may 
have begun, as the eye has become cloud filled. Subjective satellite 
classifications from TAFB and SAB were T5.5 (102 kt), and objective 
estimates range from 112 to 120 kt.  Based on the degraded 
satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been reduced to 
110 kt.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently 
en route to investigate the hurricane, and should provide 
additional information on the strength and size of the wind field 
early this afternoon.
 
Orlene has likely peaked in intensity.  Although the sea surface
temperatures remain warm along the forecast track, increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear during the next 24 to 36 hours
is likely to cause the small hurricane to weaken.  However, Orlene 
is forecast to pass near or over the Islas Marias as a strong 
hurricane late tonight or early Monday, and reach the coast of 
mainland Mexico has a hurricane by late Monday or Monday night. 
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and the low-level 
center should dissipate over the mountainous terrain of 
southwestern Mexico in 60-72 hours.
 
Orlene has continued to move just east of due north or 005/7 kt.
The hurricane is being steered between a mid-level ridge to its
east and a broad trough over northwestern Mexico.  These steering
currents should cause Orlene to bend north-northeastward later
today and it should then continue on that general heading until
landfall in southwestern Mexico.  The latest NHC track forecast is
slightly west of the previous advisory, and lies close to a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models (GFEX).  This is a little to the right of 
the other simple and corrected consensus models.  The GFS remains 
significantly farther right and faster than the remainder of the 
guidance. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning today. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central mainland Mexico,
where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Monday.  Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.
 
2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwestern Mexico into Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 19.6N 106.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 20.6N 106.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 21.7N 106.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 22.6N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 23.3N 105.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/0000Z 23.9N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Orlene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022                                              

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 021446
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022               
1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34 68  30(98)   X(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  8  69(77)   3(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  2  49(51)   2(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 
MAZATLAN       34  1  29(30)  32(62)   7(69)   2(71)   X(71)   X(71)
MAZATLAN       50  X   4( 4)  13(17)   6(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
MAZATLAN       64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN BLAS       34  2  35(37)   8(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
SAN BLAS       50  X   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
SAN BLAS       64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
P VALLARTA     34  8   9(17)   4(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 110W       34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Orlene Graphics

Hurricane Orlene 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2022 14:47:39 GMT

Hurricane Orlene 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2022 14:47:39 GMT